Cem Karsan

Commodity market guru Jeff Currie on Pres. Trump's so-called deals with Iran: “Five deal announcements, zero closes… sell the tweet, buy the molecule.” HEADLINES LIE, MOLECULES DON’T.

GEN KEANE FUMES ON FOX: IRAN TIME ADVANTAGE CRUSHES AMERICAN HOPES IN LEAKED DEAL A shocking leak of the Iran memorandum of understanding has laid bare the true state of American negotiations. What was sold as progress is a calculated Iranian stall that highlights every flaw in

Semiconductors are driving the majority of market gains: The S&P 500 has gained ~672 points year-to-date in 2026, with semiconductors accounting for a disproportionate share of the advance. The seven largest chipmakers in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, $SOX, excluding Nvidia, have contributed ~289 points, or 43% of the total gain. At the same time, the Magnificent 7 has added just ~160 points, or 24% of the total gain, over the same period. Furthermore, $SOX including Nvidia has contributed ~369 points, or 55% of the total gain, while the remaining Magnificent 6 has added just ~79 points, or 12%. This comes as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, $SOX, has surged +82% year-to-date, compared to a gain of just +6% for the Magnificent 7 excluding Nvidia. This is absolutely crazy stuff.

Semiconductors are driving the majority of market gains: The S&P 500 has gained ~672 points year-to-date in 2026, with semiconductors accounting for a disproportionate share of the advance. The seven largest chipmakers in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, $SOX, excluding Nvidia, have contributed ~289 points, or 43% of the total gain. At the same time, the Magnificent 7 has added just ~160 points, or 24% of the total gain, over the same period. Furthermore, $SOX including Nvidia has contributed ~369 points, or 55% of the total gain, while the remaining Magnificent 6 has added just ~79 points, or 12%. This comes as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, $SOX, has surged +82% year-to-date, compared to a gain of just +6% for the Magnificent 7 excluding Nvidia. This is absolutely crazy stuff.

Cyclical Stocks 101: Final highs don’t come at high P/Es. They come when earnings are peaking and P/Es look deceptively “cheap.” Semis—especially MU—are classic: they screen undervalued right before the cycle turns.

US consumer stocks are extremely weak: The equal-weighted US consumer discretionary index relative to the S&P 500 is down to 0.07, the lowest in at least 20 years. Since 2021, this ratio has fallen -42%, dropping below both the 2020 and 2008 lows. Over this period, the S&P 500 has surged +60%, outperforming the equal-weighted US consumer discretionary index by 10x, which has increased just +6%. Meanwhile, US Consumer Sentiment fell another -5.0 points in May after falling -3.5 points in April, to 44.8, an all-time low. By comparison, the S&P 500 is up +17% since March 30th and closed on Friday just 0.5% below its all-time high. The stock market is thriving, but the average American consumer is not.

AMERICANS ARE FALLING BEHIND ON LOAN AND CREDIT CARD PAYMENTS AT THE FASTEST PACE SINCE THE 2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS, WITH CREDIT CARD DEFAULTS HITTING NEAR-15 YEAR HIGHS

IRAN'S FARS SAYS STRAIT OF HORMUZ WOULD REMAIN UNDER IRAN'S MANAGEMENT CONTRARY TO TRUMP'S ANNOUNCEMENT

Absolutely incredible: Over the last 6 years, the S&P 500 has risen +130% while US Consumer Sentiment has collapsed by -55%, to its lowest since data began in 1952. We are witnessing the formation of the biggest wealth divide in modern history.

NOW: President Trump is now BACK in Washington, DC after CANCELLING his weekend plans in New Jersey CBS is reporting intelligence officials have ALSO canceled Memorial Day plans, and are on standby. Something may be imminent

Everyone is focusing on the soaring memory cost in the Vera Rubin rack. But the real shocker in this Morgan Stanley slide is actually power, because the industry is now talking about moving from roughly 120kW per rack today toward potentially 600kW per rack by the Vera Rubin Ultra generation in 2027, which is an almost unimaginable escalation in power density within an incredibly short period of time. To put this into perspective, many traditional enterprise datacenters historically operated at only a few kilowatts per rack, while even modern hyperscale campuses today often consume only tens of megawatts in total facility power draw. But once you begin deploying hundreds or thousands of 600kW AI racks simultaneously, the math becomes almost absurd because a large-scale Vera Rubin Ultra cluster could eventually consume gigawatts of electricity, effectively rivaling the energy demand of a mid-sized city. And this is where the market still massively underestimates the second-order implications of the AI boom, because the bottleneck is no longer simply semiconductors, GPUs, or memory supply. The bottleneck increasingly becomes electricity itself. The US power grid can barely keep up with current AI infrastructure demand already, while transmission congestion, transformer shortages, substation constraints, cooling limitations, permitting bottlenecks, and aging grid infrastructure are becoming increasingly visible across major datacenter hubs. Importantly, grid infrastructure cannot scale at semiconductor speed. You can accelerate chip production with enough capital expenditure and engineering talent, but building transmission lines, substations, generation capacity, cooling systems, and interconnection approvals often requires many years due to environmental reviews, local opposition, labor shortages, and physical construction constraints. This is precisely why we continue believing the AI buildout is not a two-to-three-year investment cycle, but instead a decade-long industrial transformation that increasingly resembles the buildout of railroads, electricity networks, and telecom infrastructure during previous industrial revolutions. And this is also why energy infrastructure is quietly becoming one of the most important and underappreciated AI trades globally. The winners are no longer just GPU companies. The winners increasingly include utilities like Constellation Energy and Vistra, nuclear-related plays like Oklo and NuScale Power, gas infrastructure companies like Kinder Morgan and Williams Companies, grid and electrical equipment suppliers like GE Vernova, Eaton, Schneider Electric, and Vertiv, as well as transformer, cooling, and datacenter infrastructure providers that now sit directly inside the physical backbone required to support next-generation compute. Hyperscalers themselves are starting to understand this reality. Companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta are no longer simply software companies buying servers. They are increasingly becoming quasi-energy infrastructure companies because securing long-duration power availability is becoming strategically inseparable from securing compute capacity itself. That is why nuclear power is quietly returning to the center of the conversation. Hyperscalers may eventually fund or directly partner on nuclear generation projects out of pure necessity because renewable intermittency alone cannot reliably support ultra-high-density AI clusters operating continuously at scale. In many ways, AI is beginning to collide with physical reality. You cannot run trillion-dollar next-generation compute infrastructure on transmission systems and grid architectures that were largely built decades ago for a completely different industrial era. The semiconductor story may have started the AI race, but energy infrastructure may ultimately determine who wins it.

People think stocks protect you from inflation. @jam_croissant says look at 1968 to 1982. GDP growing at 3.8% a year. The economy was ripping. The S&P still lost 40% in real terms. @TraderNickyBAT and Cem Karsan

THIS IS MASSIVE FROM CHINA Trump: "China agreed not to supply weapons to Iran. I talked to them." China FM: "We want to end rumors that China agreed with the U.S. not to supply weapons to Iran." "To be clear: no such communication occurred. China has neither

NOW: President Trump is now BACK in Washington, DC after CANCELLING his weekend plans in New Jersey CBS is reporting intelligence officials have ALSO canceled Memorial Day plans, and are on standby. Something may be imminent