Beverages: US Spirits & Beer Scanner Trends Through 2 May 2026 – Sector-Wide Weakness with Sharp Divergence at Brand Level

Core Thesis

The latest 4-week scanner data through 2 May shows US spirits and beer sales deteriorating further, partially due to Easter phasing but more fundamentally reflecting volume-led weakness across most categories. The key investment takeaway is not the headline decline but the widening divergence: prepared cocktails and ABI’s spirits portfolio are gaining share aggressively, while legacy spirits giants (Diageo, Pernod) and Heineken are losing share at an accelerating pace. Price/mix is negative for the entire spirits industry, indicating down-trading and limited pricing power.

What the Market May Be Underestimating

The magnitude of structural share shifts is larger than the top-line numbers suggest. ABI’s spirits business (Cutwater, Nutrl) grew 89% in the last 4 weeks, capturing 225 bps of value share over 52 weeks. Meanwhile, Diageo’s spirits lost 145 bps of value share in 12 weeks alone. The prepared cocktails subcategory now accounts for 12.7% of spirits volume and is growing at +23.5% over 52 weeks, while traditional whiskey and tequila sub-categories are in negative sales territory. The market may be under-pricing the risk that Diageo’s tequila franchise (Don Julio, Casamigos) is in structural decline, not just a cyclical pause.

Evidence Chain

1. Overall Beverage Weakness Worsening

• Total US spirits sales: -4.0% L4W (12W: -2.6%), volume +1.4% but price/mix -5.3%. The volume growth is misleading because it includes prepared cocktails; ex that, spirits volume declined ~3%.
• Total US beer/FMB/cider/hard seltzer: -5.4% L4W (12W: -2.6%), volume -6.3%, price/mix +0.9%. Volume decline is broad-based.
• Easter phasing contributed: the L4W compares to a period that included pre-Easter buying in 2025 but not in 2026, creating a negative base effect. However, the magnitude of deceleration (e.g., total spirits from -2.6% 12W to -4.0% 4W) exceeds typical Easter noise.

2. Spirits: Price/Mix Collapse and Category Rotation

• Total spirits price/mix: -5.3% L4W, -5.1% L52W. Negative price/mix is persistent and accelerating in subcategories like tequila (-3.4% L4W) and prepared cocktails (-2.1%).
• Prepared cocktails: +20.2% sales growth L4W, volume +22.8%. It gained 270 bps of value share (L4W) and 550 bps of volume share. This is the only major subcategory growing.
• Whiskey: -7.0% sales L4W, volume -7.4%. Tequila: -6.6% sales, -3.3% volume. Both are losing share to prepared cocktails.
• Non-alcoholic spirits: +28.3% sales L4W but sharply slowing from +70% a year ago; price/mix -11.5%, suggesting promotion-driven growth.

3. Company-Level Divergence

• Diageo (US spirits): -11.6% sales L4W, -10.6% L12W, -9.0% L52W. Volume -10.3% L4W. Market share value: -140 bps L4W, -145 bps L12W. Key brands: Don Julio -16.3%, Casamigos -22.0%, Crown Royal -11.2%, Baileys -19.7%. Tequila subcategory alone lost -350 bps of value share L4W. Beer/FMB/Cider segment: -2.5% L4W but Guinness positive +0.2% L4W, modest share gains (+5 bps).
• Pernod Ricard: -9.6% sales L4W (12W: -8.4%, 52W: -7.7%). Volume -8.7% L4W. Value share: -30 bps L4W, -35 bps L12W. Jameson (-8.1% L4W) is best major brand; Absolut -8.5%, Malibu -3.4%.
• Campari: -6.6% sales L4W (12W: -4.1%). Volume -5.6% L4W. Share loss: -10 bps L52W. Espolon is the only positive major brand (+1.1% 52W); Russell’s Reserve -22.7% 52W, Courvoisier -11.4%.
• Remy Cointreau: -5.5% sales L4W (12W: -4.6%, 52W: -7.7%). Volume -5.0%. The Botanist Gin +1.9% 52W only positive. Cognac (65.9% of sales) -7.1% L4W. Market share: -5 bps 52W.
• Moet Hennessy: -9.5% L4W (12W: -10.3%, 52W: -8.1%). Hennessy -9.8% L4W. Value share: -20 bps L4W. Belvedere Vodka +7.9% L4W a rare bright spot.
• ABI (total): -0.1% L4W. Beer/FMB: -2.7% L4W, volume -2.5%. Budweiser -10.2%, Stella -11.6% but Michelob +0.9%, Busch +17.4%. ABI spirits (4.8% weight) +89.1% L4W; Cutwater +131.6%, Nutrl +13.3%. Beer value share +85 bps, spirits value share +150 bps.
• Heineken USA: -12.5% L4W (12W: -8.1%, 52W: -8.7%). Volume -13.9%. Value share -30 bps L4W. Non-alcoholic beer: -10.2% sales, volume -20.8%, share -315 bps L52W.

Key Divergences and Risks

• Diageo’s tequila risk is underappreciated. Casamigos (4.8% of Diageo US spirits sales) is in freefall: -25.8% 52W, -22.0% 4W. Don Julio, once a growth engine, is -16.3% L4W. Together they account for 20.1% of Diageo’s spirits revenue. The tequila category slowdown combined with brand-specific share losses suggests structural erosion.
• Price/mix deterioration across the industry (spirits -5.3% L4W) points to consumer down-trading and increased promotion. This compresses margins for companies with high fixed costs.
• Beer volume decline is accelerating. Total beer -6.3% L4W. Heineken and Boston Beer are losing share fastest. ABI is relatively resilient but Budweiser/Stella remain weak. Constellation and Diageo (beer) are share gainers.
• Prepared cocktails’ rapid share gain (volume share +550 bps L4W) is displacing traditional spirits. Companies without exposure (Remy, Pernod) are structurally disadvantaged.
• Remy and Moet Hennessy face double threats: cognac demand is declining (volume -6.5% to -7.4% 52W), and pricing/cost pressure is high.

Valuation or Trading Implications

• Avoid stocks with heavy exposure to tequila and cognac in the US market, particularly Diageo and Remy Cointreau, until clear signs of stabilization appear. Diageo’s current valuation may not reflect the magnitude of share loss and brand impairment.
• ABI (InBev) benefits from a unique structural hedge: its spirits business (Cutwater) is capturing explosive share in the high-growth prepared cocktail segment, while its beer share is stable. ABI’s total US sales are flat, not declining – a relative outperformance.
• Constellation Brands and Boston Beer face contrasting paths: Constellation is gaining beer share (Modelo, Corona) but its spirits exposure is small; Boston Beer is losing share significantly.
• For investors seeking long exposure to US beverage trends, preferred holdings are those with meaningful exposure to prepared cocktails (ABI, Boston Beer’s Truly) or resilient beer portfolios (Constellation, Guinness).

Appendix: Key Data Summary (Value Share Progression, L4W Y/Y)