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研报4月29日 · Morgan Stanley

Melexis N.V.: 1st look: In-line Q, no change to the outlook

中文EN⚠ quality lint: see notes

Melexis N.V.: In-line Quarter, Unchanged Guidance – Current Valuation Leaves No Room for Error

Core Conclusion

Melexis delivered 1Q26 results slightly above consensus, supported by a 150bps sequential gross margin improvement to 39.9%. Management maintained its full-year guidance: 1H26 sales flat year-on-year, gross margin ~40%, EBIT margin ~17%, and 2H26 expected to grow versus 1H26. The stock has rallied alongside the analog semiconductor sector and now trades at €69.85, 27% above Morgan Stanley’s €55 price target. Without a material upgrade to the outlook or a more concrete 2H growth trajectory, the risk/reward is skewed to the downside. Maintain Equal-weight.

What the Market May Be Overpricing

Investors appear to be pricing in a stronger-than-guided 2H recovery. The guidance for 2H growth relative to 1H is qualitatively stated only. Morgan Stanley estimates imply a 6-7% half-on-half revenue increase, which is already close to consensus and offers no margin of safety. Given the stock’s recent run, the market may be assuming a more aggressive ramp that management has not confirmed. Any disappointment on the upcoming earnings call regarding the “growth” definition could trigger a re-rating.

Evidence Chain

1Q26 results were modestly above consensus.
Revenue of €202.1mn beat consensus of €199.1mn by 1.5%. Gross profit of €80.6mn was 2.0% above consensus. Gross margin of 39.9% was 19bps above consensus, confirming the sequential improvement trend (+150bps q/q). Operating income of €33.2mn beat consensus by 3.5%. EPS of €0.57 was 8.3% below consensus, but this appears driven by non-operating items; operating performance was in-line to slightly above.

Guidance unchanged and vague on 2H.
For 1H26, Melexis reiterates sales flat year-on-year, gross margin ~40%, and EBIT margin ~17%. For 2H26, the company expects growth versus 1H26, but provides no quantitative range. The absence of a market view or demand commentary leaves room for interpretation. The second-quarter guidance (implied by the 1H numbers) points to 2Q26 revenue of ~€207.7mn (consensus) and ~€209.8mn (Morgan Stanley), a -1.5% and -1.5% variance respectively versus consensus, suggesting no upside catalyst in the near term.

Valuation is stretched relative to the target.
The €55 price target is derived from 17x FY27 P/E, in line with peers. At €69.85, the stock trades at ~22x current-year earnings or an even higher multiple on FY26. The 52-week range is €48.60–€76.50, and the stock is near the upper end. The sharp rally alongside the analog space is not supported by a change in fundamentals.

Key Divergences and Risks

Upside risks

  • Better-than-expected 2H26 demand, especially from automotive end markets.
  • A more favourable pricing environment that lifts gross margins beyond 40%.
  • Sustained growth in the non-automotive segment, which could diversify revenue and support a higher multiple.

Downside risks

  • Weaker automotive demand than currently embedded in guidance.
  • Failure to deliver gross margin improvement, which would compress operating margins.
  • Increased competition from Chinese players, pressuring pricing and margins in the core automotive sensor market.

Valuation / Trading Implications

At the current price of €69.85, the implied P/E on consensus FY27 earnings is well above 17x. To justify today’s price, either FY27 earnings must be materially higher than Morgan Stanley’s assumption, or the market is applying a multiple expansion that lacks a fundamental catalyst. The unchanged guidance and lack of a positive demand outlook make such a scenario unlikely near-term. The Equal-weight rating reflects balanced risk/reward, but given the price overshoot, the stock appears vulnerable to profit-taking. The earnings call will be the next key event; any ambiguity on 2H growth could accelerate a correction.