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研报5月15日 · Morgan Stanley

Beverages: Spirits European Scanner trends through 19 April

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European Spirits Scanner: Weakness Deepens as Diageo Gains Share, Pernod and Campari Lose Ground

Core Conclusion

European off-trade spirits sales accelerated their decline in the 4 weeks to 19 April, falling -4.8% vs -3.1% in the prior 12 weeks, with volume contraction worsening to -5.5%. Diageo is the lone relative outperformer, gaining both value and volume share through price promotions, while Pernod Ricard, Campari, and Brown-Forman all lost share. The category faces a structural risk: pricing power is near zero (+0.7% price/mix in 4W), volume declines are broad-based, and the only growth subcategory (Tequila) is too small to offset core drags from Whisky and Gin. Investment implications point to maintaining an underweight bias on European spirits, with relative preference for companies with tequila exposure or stabilizing whisky share.

Evidence Chain

1. Total category deterioration is volume-driven and accelerating.
European spirits sales in the 4 weeks to 19 April were -4.8% Y/Y vs -3.1% in the prior 12 weeks. Volume growth fell to -5.5% (vs -3.8% in 12W). Price/mix was barely positive at +0.7% (vs +0.8% in 12W). Over the latest 52 weeks, sales declined -3.4% and volumes -4.5%, with price/mix of +1.1%. This means the entire category is losing revenue primarily through lower unit sales, not price cuts. The price contribution is shrinking, suggesting that premiumisation efforts are reaching a consumer resistance ceiling.
Investment implication: Top-line risk remains high; any further macro weakness will hit volumes before pricing can adjust. Negative operating leverage is likely.

2. Diageo outperforms on volume share gains, but at a cost to price.
Diageo’s 4-week sales fell only -1.4% (vs -0.8% in 12W), with volume nearly flat (-0.1%) but price/mix negative (-1.3%). It gained +45 bps of value share and +55 bps of volume share. This performance is driven by aggressive price promotion in key brands (e.g., Gordon’s, Smirnoff). However, core whisky brands are suffering: Johnnie Walker volume declined -21.8% over 52W, with a high price/mix of +14.5% that has now decelerated sharply to +2.8% in the last 12 weeks. Tanqueray and Gordons also show double-digit volume declines over 52W. Diageo’s European price/mix turned negative (-0.2%) in the last 12 weeks after being +2.7% over 52W.
Investment implication: Diageo’s share gains are promotional and likely unsustainable. The structural weakness in its two largest whisky franchises (Johnnie Walker, Gordon’s) is masked by short-term price cuts. Underlying brand health is deteriorating.

3. Pernod Ricard and Campari lose share as volumes accelerate downward.
Pernod Ricard reported 4-week sales of -6.5% vs -3.4% in 12W, with volume -8.4% and price/mix +2.2%. Value share fell -20 bps, volume share -30 bps. Its key brands Ricard (-2.1% sales 12W) and Havana Club (-7.9%) weaken, while Absolut (+3.4%) and Jameson (+1.8%) provide limited offset. Pernod is gaining share in Whisky (+60 bps 52W) and Aniseed (+115 bps), but losing in Rum and Gin.
Campari’s 4-week sales fell -6.6% vs -3.0% in 12W, volume -6.7%, price/mix +0.1%. Value share lost -10 bps, volume -5 bps. Aperol (44% of sales) shows -1.9% sales in 12W and -5.9% over 52W – the key drag. The "Spirits Others" subcategory (68% weight) provides some stabilization but does not offset weakness in Whisky (-16.4% sales 12W) and Vodka (-29.4%).
Investment implication: Both companies face genuine share erosion in core categories. Pernod’s share gains in Whisky and Aniseed suggest pockets of strength, but broad-based weakness in Rum and Gin offsets. Campari’s dependence on Aperol and lack of price/mix (+0.1%) points to limited buffer against volume decline.

4. Brown-Forman’s whisky-centric portfolio is under pressure, with price/mix flat to negative.
Total EU sales -1.9% over 52W, -2.0% over 12W. Whisky (92.4% of sales) declined -2.4% sales, -2.2% volume. Price/mix for total is -0.1% 52W and -0.7% 12W. Jack Daniel’s (90.3% weight) sales -2.2% 52W. Small premium brands (Woodford Reserve, Glendronach, Benriach) show sharp declines in sales (-4.8%, -10.2%, -36.6% respectively). The volume recovery seen in late 2025 has reversed in March/April 2026.
Investment implication: Brown-Forman’s European business lacks growth momentum and pricing power. The pending potential combination with Pernod Ricard adds strategic uncertainty.

5. Remy Cointreau and Tequila are relative bright spots but small.
Remy Cointreau total sales -1.4% in 4W (vs -1.2% in 12W), broadly stable. Volume declined -4.5% but price/mix of +3.2% indicates premium positioning holds. Remy Martin brand saw a strong +24% sales rebound in 12W (driven by volume +27%, price/mix -2.4%), which may be one-off restocking. Brandy (40.8% of sales) volume fell -9.6% in 12W.
Tequila is the only subcategory with positive sales and volume growth over 52W (+2.6% sales, +1.0% volume). But its 12-week trend is also turning negative (-2.2% sales, -4.0% volume).
Investment implication: Remy Cointreau holds up better than peers, but its brandy volume weakness is structural. Tequila’s momentum is fading.

6. Private label performance and subcategory trends confirm weak demand.
Private label spirits sales -5.4% in 4W, slightly worse than total category, suggesting no significant trade-down yet. However, price/mix for private label is 0.0% 12W and +0.3% 52W, indicating no pricing power. Among subcategories, Whisky (largest) declined -3.2% sales 12W and -4.3% 52W, Gin -6.1% and -5.9%, Liqueurs -3.5% and -2.9%. Only Tequila shows positive 52-week sales, and that is now down -2.2% in 12W. Rum price/mix is negative (-0.4% 12W).
Investment implication: The consumer shift to lower-priced alternatives is not yet happening, but the lack of volume recovery suggests the demand base is shrinking. The next leg down could come if private label accelerates.

Key Risks

  • Broad-based volume decline: No major manufacturer or subcategory is showing sustained volume growth. If macro conditions deteriorate further, volume could drop another 2-3%, compressing revenues and margins.
  • Pricing power erosion: Price/mix is barely positive and decelerating. Any consumer resistance to premiumisation will hit top-line growth hard, especially for Diageo and Remy whose strategies rely on mix.
  • Share loss sustainability: Pernod and Campari losing value and volume share over 4 weeks. If this persists, it signals structural competitive weakness, not just cyclical softness. Their ability to reverse share losses is unproven.
  • Tequila slowdown: The only growth engine is stalling. Tequila’s 12-week sales turning negative is a leading indicator for the entire category’s health.
  • Promotional dependency: Diageo’s share gains through price promotions (negative price/mix) are not sustainable. If it pulls back promotions, volume could collapse; if it continues, margins suffer.

Valuation / Trade Implications

No specific price targets are provided, but the scanner data supports an underweight stance on European spirits equities. The sector is trading on elevated multiples (e.g., Diageo ~20x, Pernod ~18x) that assume a recovery in volume and pricing. The data argues the opposite: volumes are accelerating down, pricing is fading, and share shifts are negative for most incumbents. Investors should favour stocks with:

  • exposure to Tequila or other growth niches (small offset);
  • stable or gaining share in large categories (e.g., Pernod’s whisky share gain is a minor positive);
  • defensive pricing power (Remy Cointreau’s +3.2% price/mix is best-in-class).

Conversely, Diageo appears most exposed to a promotional trap and structural whisky decline. Campari’s dependence on Aperol and weak price/mix makes it vulnerable to further earnings cuts. Brown-Forman’s flat price/mix and potential M&A overhang suggest limited upside.

Data coverage: 9 European countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, UK, Austria, Belgium, Netherlands, Portugal) via NielsenIQ, as of 19 April 2026.