TechFund

>be an X semi trader >pile into a mediocre foundry $XFAB >thats making bottom-of-the-barrel gross margins >has been burning cash almost for its entire history >at more than 70x forward PE >"gives you exposure to NVDA" >meanwhile, you can buy NVDA at 20x PE

$ALAB semi content per GPU has gone up 10x since IPO, will continue to increase Drivers: Scorpio switch, NVLink Fusion, new CPO solution

The data center CPU market is getting crowded, with large players looking to gain share: $AMD $NVDA $INTC $ARM $QCOM $AMZN $MSFT $GOOGL The most obvious ways to play the growth and increasing competition in this market: $TSM $SNPS $CDNS $ASML and $MRVL (ASIC partner)

Bernstein stock picks in HBM: "We believe Samsung is best positioned to meet the higher speed required by NVIDIA. Micron is disadvantaged particularly with the choice of base die node. SK hynix also suffered a small delay with an issue in its base die no long ago, according to

$INTC 's new culture – chip has to work on the second tapeout, or you're fired

$AVGO vs $MRVL - Evercore channel checks Both good companies, still holding both

Software is well positioned to see a sustained rally Take $INTU for example, the leader in accounting software: 1. It has never been easier to start a business and those businesses will need accounting software 2. Businesses aren't going to vibe code their own accounting software. It's a small cost item and you need to make sure it's fully tax compliant. Links with govs are also needed so that they can automatically file your taxes. 3. I'm definitely not going to buy any software from vibe coded competitors. Vibe coded software is prone to security breaches for devs that don't fully know what they're now doing. Stick with the leaders that have secure, battle tested software. 4. Businesses are now subscribing to AI workloads inside their accounting software. For example, I subscribed to an AI which automatically classifies my costs, the result is that my P&L and accounting are now fully automatically generated. So, EPS will likely accelerate from here, same with the PE multiple which has lots of potential for recovery. Attractive risk-reward

"Shortages are spreading from Memory to wafers, CPUs, optics" - $ANET Gross margins will be coming down due to silicon price inflation. Expect all companies reliant on silicon and without sufficient pricing power to get margin headwinds. Who benefits? The strong players in the semi supply chain with pricing power are still trading on attractive valuations: $TSM , Semicap like $ASML , the DRAM triopoly (SK Hynix, $MU and Samsung), are some of the most obvious winners in silicon. $NVDA has locked in tons of capacity so will benefit. A big winner can also be $INTC . For years, there has been no demand for their Foundry, but this is changing now where even TSMC has not sufficient capacity.

"Power semi content will 10x with the move to 800V racks. Lots of power semi content outside the rack with solid state transformers" - ON CEO We did the last review of this space in Feb, link below. Will update in the coming weeks as the outlook continues to get better $ON $IFX $WOLF $MPWR

UBS - $AMD is much less capacity constrained than $INTC , AMD server CPU revenue growing at 80% this year "The market obviously realizes that INTC’s guidance reads very favorably for AMD – particularly server CPU given commentary that implies INTC is undershipping the market by

Deep dive on Cerebras $CBRS

$AMZN + Cerebras are working on a similar disaggregated inference solution as $NVDA + Groq Prefill => runs on Trainium 3 Decode => runs on Cerebras

$INTC - UBS sees some big names committing to 14A Foundry later this year

$AMZN AWS yoy growth continues to accelerate - Deutsche expert call

In a bit more than a year, $TTD went from being a market darling on >60x PE to a deep value consensus short on 10x PE Our deep dive on the current outlook https:// techinvestments.io/p/the-trade-de sk-disrupted …

US vs China in the Taiwan Strait. China currently has a 10,000 to 1 drone manufacturing advantage and a 223 to 1 shipbuilding capacity advantage. $PLTR 's Sankar traced the drone gap to regulatory decisions that killed American commercial drone development. The Federal Aviation Administration prohibited beyond line of sight operations while export controls classified drones as flying missiles under ITAR restrictions. In a counterfactual world, General Atomics could have had a consumer subsidiary that became DJI, creating American dominance in commercial drones that would have driven down cost curves for military applications. Instead, the entire consumer drone market and its innovation benefits accrued to China. Well worth watching @theallinpod

$INTC keeps getting crushed - $AMD $ARM

The market is currently assuming the worst of both worlds for software, i.e. revenue growth will be impacted, or decline, while software companies themselves will have no opportunity to cut costs. However, $SNOW already cut 200 employees last Q due to AI benefits. At the same

JP Morgan notes after $ASML meeting - litho intensity will continue to step in logic with the biggest increase coming at the A10 node

$CDNS & $SNPS down 8%, yet their biggest customer - $NVDA 's Jensen - says yesterday he's investing as much resources in these tools as they need.

$RMBS signals supply constraints in the semi supply chain might limit their growth in '26

Remember, when bears are getting all the airtime on X, it's a good time to take a look at those stocks. This is what we wrote in July with $ASML 's shares at EUR 600

Deutsche buy thesis on $ASML