GOOGL

$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$ $谷歌-A (GOOGL.US)$ $英特尔 (INTC.US)$ 今天的下跌是因为MSCI 改了自由流通量的取整规则： 旧规则：自由流通 ≥15% 的票，FIF 等于其估算自由流通量、向上取整到最近的 5%——对高流通超大盘是系统性高估。 NVDA 实际自由流通约 95–96%（黄仁勋+内部人持股拉低几个点），旧规则把它当 100% 算。新规则提高精度，把 FIF 从 ~1.00 砍回 ~0.95 → 指数权重直接掉 ~4–5%。NVDA 在 MSCI World 里占约 6.36%，乘以全球几万亿美元跟踪 AUM = 几十亿美元级别的强制卖盘。这就是那张 $20B 卖单的来源。 MSFT 自由流通本来就 ≈100%，自身 FIF 几乎不变；但市值加权指数权重要重新归一到 100%，NVDA（及其他被"向上取整"高估的超大盘）腾出的权重按市值分摊给其余成分股。MSFT 是第二大票，吃到的绝对美元增量最大 → 被动买盘 $15.4B。 NVDA：自由流通 ≈95-96%，旧规则取整到 100%（高估 4-5%）→ 日成交 2.82 亿 vs 前日均 1.66 亿（+96%）→ 跌 1.5%，成交额 600 亿 GOOGL：自由流通 ≈94-95%，旧规则取整到 100%（高估 5-6%）→ 日成交 4358 万 vs 前日均 2375 万（+79%）→ 跌 1.3% AMZN：自由流通 ≈91%，旧规则取整到 95%（高估 4%）→ 日成交 5447 万 vs 前日均 3946 万（+34%）→ 基本平盘微跌 META：自由流通 ≈87%，旧规则取整到 90%（高估 3%）→ 日成交 1963 万 vs 前日均 1677 万（+17%）→ 几乎没动 MSFT：自由流通 ≈99.8%，旧规则和新规则都 ≈100%（高估 0.2%）→ 日成交 7752 万 vs 前日均 3912 万（+64%）→ 涨 4.1% 梯度太漂亮了。谁被旧 FIF 高估得越多，谁今天被砸得越狠；MSFT 几乎没高估，成了被动资金外溢的最大接盘侠。

📊 稳准狠龙头家人群 · 今日行情总结 2026年5月29日（周五） ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🇺🇸 美股今日行情 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 指数表现： 📈 S&P 500 (SPY)：$756.48 ▲ 0.25% 📈 纳斯达克 (QQQ)：$738.31 ▲ 0.37% 📈 道琼斯 (DIA)：$510.78 ▲ 0.74% 龙头个股（收盘）： 🔴 AAPL：$312.06 ▼ 0.14% 🔴 NVDA：$211.14 ▼ 1.45% 🔴 TSLA：$435.79 ▼ 1.43% 🔴 AMZN：$270.64 ▼ 1.23% 🔴 META：$632.51 ▼ 0.44% 🔴 GOOGL：$380.34 ▼ 2.51% 🟢 MSFT：$450.24 ▲ 5.45% 今日最大亮点 🌟 微软（MSFT）强势大涨 5.45%，今日群内最大赢家。群友盘前就埋伏了2倍 MSFT，开盘即起飞。Dell 今日大涨约 28~30%（DELL 收盘 ~$420）。CRM（Salesforce）出现企稳迹象，今日反弹 8~9%。OKTA 涨幅超过 DELL，IGV 重回 100 以上。 ₿ 比特币（BTC）：$73,366 ▼ 0.22%（24h） ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 💬 群内今日发言总结 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 今日共 1,257+ 条消息，全天情绪从凌晨多空分歧到日内明显偏多，MSFT 带头狂涨，群主赚麻了，群友集体亢奋。 🔥 今日热门话题 1️⃣ MSFT 暴涨 5.45%：盘前就有人抢先买入 2 倍 MSFT，日内持续封神，群主 John 被众人恭喜账户大涨，要求发红包 2️⃣ NQ 今日走势：早盘高开后宽幅震荡，一度翻红走弱，空头姐妹死扛空单被挤爆，下午群主宣告"终于把 NQ 干红了" 3️⃣ CRM 财报季前后：John 持仓 CRM 正股水下，今日出现 8% 级别反弹，群友调侃群主死扛终迎曙光 4️⃣ 川普内幕交易热议：群友讨论川普在宴会上喷佩洛西内幕交易、自己也在同期疯狂建仓，双标梗疯狂传播 5️⃣ 韩国全民加杠杆炒股：Raymond Li 和皮皮鲁发文讨论韩国史诗级牛市，引发"美国版韩国化"担忧 6️⃣ 6月大戏预告：推背感发布长文分析，6/1 老黄演讲、6/3 博通财报、下旬 AVGO/FedEx 等，预警 6 月是大洗盘月 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🎭 积极发言群友画像（发言 10 条以上） ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 👤 '芒果’ #1'（119条） 📌 群内最活跃评论员，情绪气氛担当，名副其实的抄底信仰者 💬「这狗盘真是厉害」「soxs换soxl」「nq被老姜奶爆了，干它」 🎯 全天持续参与 NQ 行情讨论，空仓被挤爆后立刻翻多 情绪：🔄 灵活多变，技术面感知敏锐 👤 John（78条） 📌 群主，CRM 忠实持有者，今日 MSFT 大赢家 💬「我盘前梭哈了全世界」「微软涨这么多请群友们自觉点给辛苦打工的群主发个红包」 🎯 盘前梭哈全仓，持 CRM 正股不割肉，MSFT 大涨 5.45%，全天最靓的仔 情绪：😎 今日大涨，笑纳膝盖 👤 Raymond Li（75条） 📌 理性操盘手，全群风险管理担当，意见领袖，频繁被人@请教 💬「舍财保命」「我加减仓都不看图的」 🎯 早盘连续建仓（3x→15x buy），减掉 AVGO、DDOG 部分，挂 MU $1038 钓鱼减仓 情绪：🧘 沉稳如山，仓位管理有序 👤 做熊不如坐牢（73条） 📌 嘴上说空心里满多，坐牢文化传播者，今日 MSFT 做多 15 万 💬「那你们怎么这么穷」「赚的多的抓起来浸猪笼！」 🎯 持仓做多到 15 万，MSFT 最终不割 情绪：💸 嘴硬空头实际扛多，今日大赚 👤 做熊不如做狗（68条） 📌 NQ 期货选手，本月 QQQ 赚了 11%，上月 16% 💬「I need 100 more days like today」 🎯 卖掉 SOXL，MSFT 452.5 CC 已卖，NQ 空仓翻多 情绪：🎉 今日收益丰厚，情绪高昂 👤 推背感十足 - 皮姐力哥美服第一粉（68条） 📌 宏观分析师人设，喜欢发长文解盘，对市场节奏独到 💬「今年6月的美股要把所有人放进滚筒洗衣机里甩」 🎯 看空 CRM 风险，分析 6 月四周大戏，谨慎对待高仓位 情绪：📊 今日偏谨慎，享受分析但不太冒进 👤 li（54条） 📌 MSFT 多头死忠，持有 MSFT 2027 年 1 月 LEAP 💬「我艹，账户起飞了」「川普炒股是主页，当总统是副业」 🎯 MSFT LEAP call 大涨起飞，MU 先跑一点 情绪：🚀 今日最满意的多头之一，飞天了 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🥊 今日群内冲突记录 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔥 冲突一：发发发 vs John — 「CRM 你还在船上啊？」⏰ 08:45 [08:45] 发发发：CRM [大哭] 就知道你还在船上 [08:45] 发发发：你赶紧滚 [08:46] John：我什么时候没在船上 [08:46] 发发发：劳资跟你拼了 ⚖️ 老朋友式互怼，John 笑着扛着，无明显胜负 🔥 冲突二：PUA 梗全天发酵 [03:11] To the moon：被群主 PUA，钱都被砍走了 [08:37] 何氏粉丝：群主天天被 pua，终于出头了 [14:42] 凡：我的人生目标就是先自由然后每天在群里 pua 群主 ⚖️ 今日 MSFT 大涨，PUA 梗全部变成赞美，群内生态健康 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📸 盘后群友晒单实录 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 💰 真实收益秀（按涨幅排序） 🏆 涛（朋友圈截图 · 11:07） • IBM 期权：+4,300.00% 🤯 • 福特期权：+2,340.91% • 第三单：+568.70% 附言："感谢福特 感谢ibm" → 笑。神评："你没感谢川总 差评" 🥇 丸辣（Interactive Brokers） • 本周账户总回报：+109.81% • 曲线笔直向上，周中急速拉升 🥈 John（Interactive Brokers） • 本周账户总回报：+9.59% • Robinhood 今日：+0.59% 😂 整活反向晒单（喜剧收尾） • 做熊不如做狗：BofA 银行存款截图，余额 $520.21（账户名红笔涂掉） • buy the fking dip：First Tech 支票账户 $6.20 + 储蓄 $0.14，一分不剩 → 赚麻了的笑哭，没仓的自嘲，全群喜气洋洋 🌐 盘后地缘快讯（Raymond Li 转发） 美军5月29日宣布将在霍尔木兹海峡附近开展军事行动，已迫使115艘商业船只改变航向。短暂讨论对能源股次日影响，整体情绪未受明显干扰。 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🧠 市场情绪综合判断 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 多头信号 🟢 ✅ MSFT 单日涨 5.45%，软件/云板块强势，IGV 重回 100 ✅ OKTA、DDOG 等 SaaS 股今日表现突出，群内持仓普遍正收益 ✅ NQ 空头被彻底挤爆，多头氛围极度乐观 ✅ Dell 大涨 30%+，AI 硬件需求侧获验证 ✅ 期权多头今日收获历史级回报（涛的 IBM +4300%） 空头信号 🔴 ⚠️ M7 中 NVDA、GOOGL、TSLA 今日均跌，结构分化 ⚠️ 推背感预警：6 月将是大洗盘月，4 周均有重要催化剂，波动率或大幅抬升 ⚠️ 月末最后一天，群友普遍处于高仓位，调整风险被多人提及 ⚠️ NQ 日线上影线连续出现，短期过热迹象明显 ⚠️ BTC 微跌 0.22%，风险情绪未完全扩散至加密 ⚠️ 霍尔木兹局势升温，或对能源板块产生盘前影响 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 💼 专业炒股建议 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 1️⃣ MSFT 获利管理：今日大涨 5.45% 后处于短期高位，持有 MSFT CC 或 LEAP 的群友可考虑部分获利了结，保留核心仓位等 6 月博通财报后再评估方向 2️⃣ 谨慎追高 NQ：月末最后一天上影线收盘，结合周五效应，周末可能出 TACO 等政策扰动，高仓位建议减至安全仓位过周末 3️⃣ Dell/OKTA/IBM 期权持有者：今日均已大幅获利，建议落袋为安或上移止盈线，避免周末 gap down 吃掉盈利 4️⃣ CRM 仓位：今日反弹 8-9%，已持仓者可借机减轻水下压力；新进者注意财报前后波动，不宜重仓 5️⃣ 6月风险前置：6/1 黄仁勋演讲、6/3 AVGO 财报为最近两个重要节点，建议在此之前保持仓位弹性，不满仓过节点 6️⃣ 霍尔木兹风险：周末消息面存在能源/地缘扰动，持有油气或防务相关股的群友注意设置止损，避免周一跳空 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🎯 一句话总结 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 今天是多头的节日：MSFT 封神、Dell 暴涨、IBM 期权 4300%。但月末高仓、NQ 过热、6 月大戏将至——赚了的先落袋，聪明的钱已经开始给自己留退路。

$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$ $谷歌-A (GOOGL.US)$ $英特尔 (INTC.US)$ 今天的下跌是因为MSCI 改了自由流通量的取整规则： 旧规则：自由流通 ≥15% 的票，FIF 等于其估算自由流通量、向上取整到最近的 5%——对高流通超大盘是系统性高估。 NVDA 实际自由流通约 95–96%（黄仁勋+内部人持股拉低几个点），旧规则把它当 100% 算。新规则提高精度，把 FIF 从 ~1.00 砍回 ~0.95 → 指数权重直接掉 ~4–5%。NVDA 在 MSCI World 里占约 6.36%，乘以全球几万亿美元跟踪 AUM = 几十亿美元级别的强制卖盘。这就是那张 $20B 卖单的来源。 MSFT 自由流通本来就 ≈100%，自身 FIF 几乎不变；但市值加权指数权重要重新归一到 100%，NVDA（及其他被"向上取整"高估的超大盘）腾出的权重按市值分摊给其余成分股。MSFT 是第二大票，吃到的绝对美元增量最大 → 被动买盘 $15.4B。 NVDA：自由流通 ≈95-96%，旧规则取整到 100%（高估 4-5%）→ 日成交 2.82 亿 vs 前日均 1.66 亿（+96%）→ 跌 1.5%，成交额 600 亿 GOOGL：自由流通 ≈94-95%，旧规则取整到 100%（高估 5-6%）→ 日成交 4358 万 vs 前日均 2375 万（+79%）→ 跌 1.3% AMZN：自由流通 ≈91%，旧规则取整到 95%（高估 4%）→ 日成交 5447 万 vs 前日均 3946 万（+34%）→ 基本平盘微跌 META：自由流通 ≈87%，旧规则取整到 90%（高估 3%）→ 日成交 1963 万 vs 前日均 1677 万（+17%）→ 几乎没动 MSFT：自由流通 ≈99.8%，旧规则和新规则都 ≈100%（高估 0.2%）→ 日成交 7752 万 vs 前日均 3912 万（+64%）→ 涨 4.1% 梯度太漂亮了。谁被旧 FIF 高估得越多，谁今天被砸得越狠；MSFT 几乎没高估，成了被动资金外溢的最大接盘侠。

$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$ $谷歌-A (GOOGL.US)$ $英特尔 (INTC.US)$ 今天的下跌是因为MSCI 改了自由流通量的取整规则： 旧规则：自由流通 ≥15% 的票，FIF 等于其估算自由流通量、向上取整到最近的 5%——对高流通超大盘是系统性高估。 NVDA 实际自由流通约 95–96%（黄仁勋+内部人持股拉低几个点），旧规则把它当 100% 算。新规则提高精度，把 FIF 从 ~1.00 砍回 ~0.95 → 指数权重直接掉 ~4–5%。NVDA 在 MSCI World 里占约 6.36%，乘以全球几万亿美元跟踪 AUM = 几十亿美元级别的强制卖盘。这就是那张 $20B 卖单的来源。 MSFT 自由流通本来就 ≈100%，自身 FIF 几乎不变；但市值加权指数权重要重新归一到 100%，NVDA（及其他被"向上取整"高估的超大盘）腾出的权重按市值分摊给其余成分股。MSFT 是第二大票，吃到的绝对美元增量最大 → 被动买盘 $15.4B。 NVDA：自由流通 ≈95-96%，旧规则取整到 100%（高估 4-5%）→ 日成交 2.82 亿 vs 前日均 1.66 亿（+96%）→ 跌 1.5%，成交额 600 亿 GOOGL：自由流通 ≈94-95%，旧规则取整到 100%（高估 5-6%）→ 日成交 4358 万 vs 前日均 2375 万（+79%）→ 跌 1.3% AMZN：自由流通 ≈91%，旧规则取整到 95%（高估 4%）→ 日成交 5447 万 vs 前日均 3946 万（+34%）→ 基本平盘微跌 META：自由流通 ≈87%，旧规则取整到 90%（高估 3%）→ 日成交 1963 万 vs 前日均 1677 万（+17%）→ 几乎没动 MSFT：自由流通 ≈99.8%，旧规则和新规则都 ≈100%（高估 0.2%）→ 日成交 7752 万 vs 前日均 3912 万（+64%）→ 涨 4.1% 梯度太漂亮了。谁被旧 FIF 高估得越多，谁今天被砸得越狠；MSFT 几乎没高估，成了被动资金外溢的最大接盘侠。

google的stop order少，没多少量。NVDA， INTC都是巨量的order

为什么你的GOOG？才60@Raymond Li 块

Premarket movers: Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower (Microsoft +0.8%, Nvidia +0.5%, Tesla -0.4%, Apple -0.5%, Meta -0.5%, Amazon -0.7%, Alphabet -0.8%) American Eagle shares (AEO) tumbled 11% after the clothing retailer reported total comparable sales for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate. Autodesk’s (ADSK) falls 7% after its proposed acquisition of MaintainX has been tentatively welcomed by analysts, who see the deal as expensive but representing a strong strategic move. Dell Technologies shares (DELL) surge 35% after the Texas-based company raised both its full year revenue and adjusted EPS outlooks on strong demand for its AI-powering servers. Elastic (ESTC) is down 5.4% after the software company gave an outlook for adjusted first-quarter earnings that was weaker than expected. Gap (GAP) shares fell 15% after the clothing retailer reported its latest earnings with poor performance by the company’s Old Navy brand that weighed on the full-year outlook in an otherwise mixed report. Krispy Kreme (DNUT) is up 5% after the doughnut chain’s Director Bernardo Hees acquired $768,718 of stock, according to a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. NetApp (NTAP) rallies 19% after the data storage provider reported its latest earnings with a strong print from the company, showing strong growth. Nextpower Inc. shares (NXT) rise 11% after it agreed to buy Prevalon Energy, a joint venture between Mitsubishi Power Americas and EES, for up to $365 million in cash and stock. PagerDuty shares (PD) are up 13% after the software company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast for adjusted earnings. SentinelOne shares (S) fall 12% after the software company gave a second-quarter revenue forecast that was weaker than expected and announced it would reduce its full-time employees by 8%. UiPath shares (PATH) are down 4.6% after the software company reported first-quarter results that analysts are generally positive on, although they want to see greater confirmation of durable growth in annualized recurring revenue. Viasat (VSAT) falls 7.2% after the wireless communications firm’s fourth-quarter earnings undershot analysts’ expectations.

Google $GOOGL owned Waymo now has almost 600 autonomous vehicles registered in Texas - Tech Crunch

美国证券交易委员会（SEC）已批准 Cboe 开展期权交易的盘后延长交易服务。 自7月13日起，特定股票的期权交易时间将延长，最早可于美国东部时间（ET）上午7:30开始，最晚持续至下午4:15。 涉及的股票包括：$NVDA、$GOOG、$AAPL、$MSFT、$AMZN、$TSLA、$META、$PLTR、$AVGO 和 $AMD。

THE OPTIONS MARKET IS ABOUT TO GO EXTENDED HOURS: THE MAG 7 ARE FIRST IN LINE CBOE just received SEC approval to launch extended trading hours for options. Launch date: July 13, 2026. Here's who makes the cut at launch: About 20 stocks, including all Magnificent 7 names: • Apple $AAPL • Microsoft $MSFT • NVIDIA $NVDA • Google $GOOGL • Amazon $AMZN • Meta $META • Tesla $TSLA To qualify for extended hours options trading: - $50B+ market cap - 150,000 contracts minimum - 10M+ shares in daily average trading volume CBOE Global Markets $CBOE also plans to launch 23x5 equities trading on its CBOE EDGX Exchange in December. Nearly around-the-clock trading, 5 days a week. Two separate launches. One direction: the market is open longer than ever.

Google $GOOGL owned Waymo just posted this: “Our fleet is expanding! Meet Ojai, powered by our sixth-gen Waymo Driver. Welcoming riders soon in LA, Phoenix, and San Francisco.”

Intel’s EMIB Packaging Is Growing Rapidly — Silicon Capacitors Are Taking Off Too Silicon capacitors are poised for explosive growth in the AI semiconductor space. Intel has been found to be planning a large-scale adoption of silicon capacitors starting next year, in order to enhance the performance of its in-house 2.5D packaging technology, “EMIB.” The most clearly visible source of demand is Google. Google plans to launch its next-generation AI accelerator, “v8e,” in the second half of next year, and has adopted an EMIB substrate with embedded silicon capacitors for that chip. With other Big Tech companies such as Amazon also currently applying EMIB, analysts say demand could increase sharply. According to industry sources on the 27th, Intel plans to apply silicon capacitors to its 2.5D packaging starting next year. Intel Adopts “Silicon Capacitors” for 2.5D Packaging… Google AI Chip Gets First Application 2.5D is an advanced packaging technology that inserts a thin-film interposer between the semiconductor and the substrate. Because it can connect circuits at higher density compared with conventional packaging that uses only a substrate, demand is rising in the AI and HPC fields. To improve cost efficiency in 2.5D packaging, Intel devised its own technology called EMIB. Rather than using a broad, spread-out interposer, EMIB connects chip to chip using a small silicon bridge. Since bridges only need to be placed where chip-to-chip connections are required, chips can be arranged more flexibly and efficiently. Recently, EMIB has been drawing attention as an alternative to TSMC, which had been leading the existing 2.5D packaging market. This is because TSMC’s 2.5D packaging capacity is suffering from a supply shortage amid the rapid development of the AI industry. Indeed, global Big Tech player Google is also paying attention to EMIB. Google has decided to adopt EMIB for its in-house AI semiconductor “v8e,” which it plans to launch in the second half of next year. Under this structure, TSMC handles chip mass production, MediaTek handles design and manufacturing support, and Intel handles packaging. However, there have been concerns that EMIB is gradually showing limitations in providing stable power supply for AI semiconductors, which consume large amounts of power. Accordingly, Intel plans to introduce new technologies such as silicon capacitors and through-silicon vias (TSV) to ensure stable packaging for the v8e. A capacitor is a component that stores and releases electricity in an electronic circuit. In the case of silicon capacitors, their resistance (ESL/ESR) is more than 100 times lower than that of conventional multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCC), minimizing the signal loss that occurs in high-performance semiconductors. They can also be designed in an ultra-thin structure based on a silicon wafer, enabling high-density integration. A semiconductor industry official explained, “Because the voltage drop (the phenomenon of voltage decreasing) that occurs in the high-frequency region within AI chips is difficult to solve with MLCC, we understand that Intel is adopting silicon capacitors as a solution,” adding, “The relevant supply chain is now in place, and mass production is set to begin in earnest next year.” EMIB-T Is Already on a Growth Trajectory — The Related Ecosystem and Market Are Expanding Together Intel has also inserted TSVs, which serve as power-delivery channels, into the silicon bridge. The key point is that by using TSVs to shorten the power-delivery path between the substrate and the chip, Intel has improved power efficiency and signal integrity. Intel calls this “EMIB-T.” The industry expects the EMIB-T and silicon capacitor markets to grow rapidly. This is because Japan’s Ibiden — one of the major companies that mass-produces semiconductor substrates for EMIB-T — is aggressively pursuing capital investment. Previously, Ibiden had planned to build its Kawashima (Gama) plant in Gifu Prefecture as a substrate plant for Intel CPUs. However, it postponed that schedule and decided in the first half of this year to officially convert the Gama plant into a mass-production line for EMIB-T substrates. The investment is 220 billion yen (about KRW 2.1 trillion). In its recent earnings announcement, Ibiden stated, “Operation of the Gama plant will begin in 2027 and enter full-scale mass production in 2028,” adding, “EMIB-T substrate capacity is currently far short of demand. However, adding further capacity is quite difficult, so we are discussing options with our customers.” A semiconductor industry official explained, “Ibiden’s EMIB-T-dedicated line is being built with most of the investment coming from customers such as Google, Amazon, and Intel,” adding, “This demonstrates that AI semiconductors based on EMIB-T will grow significantly going forward, and silicon capacitors are likely to expand alongside them.”

Wall Street is ramping up hedges against Big Tech: The total net notional value of credit default swaps (CDS) outstanding on major tech firms is up +$1.0 billion so far in Q2 2026, to a record $12.5 billion. The total value of debt being insured against default on these companies is up +500% since Q2 2025. Oracle, $ORCL , leads with ~$6.5 billion, followed by Amazon, $AMZN , at ~$2.0 billion, and Alphabet, $GOOGL , at ~$2.0 billion. At the same time, Microsoft, $MSFT , stands at ~$1.0 billion, Meta, $META , at ~$800 million, and Nvidia, $NVDA , at ~$200 million. Furthermore, monthly notional trading volumes of Big Tech CDS trading at Bank of America are up +900% since the start of 2025. For context, most of these CDS contracts did not trade actively until 2025. Corporate borrowing tied to AI is exploding.

Wall Street is ramping up hedges against Big Tech: The total net notional value of credit default swaps (CDS) outstanding on major tech firms is up +$1.0 billion so far in Q2 2026, to a record $12.5 billion. The total value of debt being insured against default on these companies is up +500% since Q2 2025. Oracle, $ORCL , leads with ~$6.5 billion, followed by Amazon, $AMZN , at ~$2.0 billion, and Alphabet, $GOOGL , at ~$2.0 billion. At the same time, Microsoft, $MSFT , stands at ~$1.0 billion, Meta, $META , at ~$800 million, and Nvidia, $NVDA , at ~$200 million. Furthermore, monthly notional trading volumes of Big Tech CDS trading at Bank of America are up +900% since the start of 2025. For context, most of these CDS contracts did not trade actively until 2025. Corporate borrowing tied to AI is exploding.

"we think the [Google Cloud] margin rise is an illusion" - @SemiAnalysis_ $GOOGL

ChatGPT just bought some Cigna $CI stock in the Rallies AI Arena This is what the AI's portfolio looks like now $47.8K of Credo $CRDO $41.2K of Google $GOOGL $20.7K of Nebius $NBIS $14.7K of Ampheonl $APH $9.9K of Progressive $PGR $9.9K of Visa $V $8.6K of Cigna $CI $7.3K of Leidos $LDOS $1.1K of available cash

Since reporting earnings, only $TSLA & $AAPL are outperforming $SPY . $GOOGL $MSFT $NVDA $META $AMZN $MAGS #MAG7

THERE ARE CURRENTLY 14 PUBLIC COMPANIES IN THE WORLD WORTH MORE THAN $1 TRILLION Nvidia $NVDA : $5.2T Google $GOOGL : $4.7T Apple $AAPL : $4.5T 4. Microsoft $MSFT : $3.1T 5. Amazon $AMZN : $2.9T 6. Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM : $2.1T 7. Broadcom $AVGO : $2T 8. Saudi Aramco: $1.8T 9. Tesla $TSLA : $1.6T 10. Meta Platforms $META : $1.6T 11. Samsung: $1.3T 12. Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B : $1T 13. Micron $MU : $1T 14. SK Hynix: $1T 10 are from the United States 2 are from South Korea 1 is from Saudi Arabia 1 is from Taiwan

TSMC plans to hike 3nm prices as much as 15% in the 2nd half 2026 due to surging demand for AI accelerators, media report, adding additional hikes of 5%-10% may follow in 2027. The report cites unnamed supply chain sources. $TSM $NVDA $AVGO $GOOGL $AMZN #semiconductors

ASIC chip revenue may double in 2027, then double again in 2028 for custom chip designers like Broadcom, MediaTek, Alchip, Global Unichip, media report, as demand from several major Cloud firms, including Google and Amazon, continues to rise and TSMC’s capacity shortage continues to ease. The Google TPU is expected to contribute a far higher amount to Broadcom and MediaTek in 2027-2028 vs now, with shipments of MediaTek’s 2nm TPU project in 2028 seen up nearly twofold – so long as it can get TSMC capacity/Intel EMIB. Alchip’s chairman described TSMC’s 3nm capacity shortage as worse than the memory shortage. After 2027, the capacity bottleneck is seen easing. $TSM $INTC $AVGO $GOOGL $AMZN #MediaTek #Alchip #GlobalUnichip #GUC #semiconductors

AI server maker Wiwynn plans to build at least 3 more plants in the United States as customer demand at its new US facilities is “beyond anything we imagined”, media report, citing Chair Emily Hong. Wiwynn hopes to continue winning orders from US cloud giants for AI infrastructure projects. Hong reportedly said Wiwynn initially worried an expansion at its Texas facility might hurt demand from a Mexico plant, but instead clients asked for more capacity, and the Mexico plant remained fully utilized. The company’s capex this year is expected to be significantly higher than the NT$13 billion last year. $AMZN $GOOGL $AVGO $META $MSFT #semiconductors #AIserver

Component shortages have gotten so bad that upstream suppliers (GPU, CPU) now ensure AI server makers have every part needed before shipping product to them “to avoid wasting bullets”, media report, as bottlenecks now include CPUs, memory, storage, high-end PCBs, power management (PMIC) chips, passive components like MLCCs (Multi-Layer Ceramic Capacitors), more. The article cites Wiwynn Chair Emily Hong saying “Right now, the AI industry doesn’t just lack power, it lacks people, capital – and most of all, materials.” Wiwynn now holds historic high NT$230 billion inventory as it works to match components. $NVDA $INTC $AMD $AMZN $GOOGL #semiconductors #servers

Taiwan prosecutors have charged an engineer from Broadcom subsidiary, Avago Technologies Taiwan Ltd., of leaking trade secrets, including client orders, client R&D timelines, product revenue forecasts, notes from executive meetings, media report, adding he allegedly received NT$2.98 million (US$95,000) in speaking fees by giving 85 presentations in one year as a “Broadcom Expert.” $AVGO $GOOGL $META $MSFT #ByteDance

This is how the largest public companies in world have performed so far in 2026 Nvidia $NVDA +15.5% Google $GOOGL +22.4% Apple $AAPL +13.6% Microsoft $MSFT -13.5% Amazon $AMZN +15.4% Broadcom $AVGO +19.7% Tesla $TSLA -5.3% Meta Platforms $META -7.6% Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B -3.2% Eli Lilly $LLY -0.9% Walmart $WMT +8% Micron $MU +163.1%

The data center CPU market is getting crowded, with large players looking to gain share: $AMD $NVDA $INTC $ARM $QCOM $AMZN $MSFT $GOOGL The most obvious ways to play the growth and increasing competition in this market: $TSM $SNPS $CDNS $ASML and $MRVL (ASIC partner)

$GOOG $GOOGL Alphabet CEO @sundarpichai admitting there are areas they're not at the frontier in AI: "If you look at overall capabilities including text, multimodality, voice or audio, reasoning in general, overall intelligence, I think we're very capable. When it comes to

Google $GOOGL invested $10 Billion into Anthropic in its last fund raising round at a $350 Billion valuation Anthropic is now expected to raise money at a valuation of more than $900B Google's $10B is about to be worth more than $25 Billion

How do I short this before they IPO? $GOOGL is about to eat their lunch. $AAPL probably gets involved in a ring.

It seems so easy to just go buy the Amazon or Alphabet GPU version but they are hard to get credit against and do not hold their value over the years like Nvidia's do. Doesn't matter tomorrow or the next day, does matter over the long haul. And i like AMZN & GOOGL

风险提示，我的V36-9 Hedge Fund OS提示目前AI板块拥挤已达历次大股灾水平：当前AI Big 10具体权重数据（2026年5月最新）： 根据SlickCharts实时S&P 500成分股权重数据（最新可用），AI Big 10（核心AI驱动公司：NVIDIA、Apple、Microsoft、Amazon、Alphabet、Broadcom、Tesla、Meta、AMD、Oracle）合计权重约为40%。 具体权重明细（Top 10中AI相关占比极高，仅第10名Walmart非核心AI）： • NVDA (NVIDIA): 7.78% • AAPL (Apple): 6.41% • MSFT (Microsoft): 4.59% • AMZN (Amazon): 4.36% • Alphabet (GOOGL + GOOG): 7.19%（合计） • AVGO (Broadcom): 3.03% • TSLA (Tesla): 2.39% • META (Meta Platforms): 2.30% • AMD (Advanced Micro Devices): 1.10% • ORCL (Oracle): 0.84% 合计 ≈ 39.99% ≈ 40%。 更广义“AI-linked stocks”（Goldman Sachs定义，包括更多半导体/云/基础设施公司如MU、INTC等）：已达~45%，创历史新高（自ChatGPT以来从~25%飙升）。124 Top 10整体权重（含WMT）：39.60%（13家公司已超40%）。 历史对比图，使用专业金融图表风格重新绘制历史集中度峰值对比柱状图： • Nifty Fifty (1970s峰值)：40% (1972) • Japan (1980s峰值)：44% (1988) • Tech & Telecom (2000s峰值)：41% (2000) • AI Big 10 (2020s当前)：41% (2026，更新后仍处峰值区间；广义AI-linked更高) 图表解读：AI Big 10当前集中度已与2000年科技泡沫峰值持平（或略超历史警戒线40%），与Nifty Fifty和Japan泡沫时期接近。灰色虚线标注40%阈值，红色柱突出AI当前风险水平。 补充其他拥挤度指标（HHI指数、资金流向等） 1 HHI指数 (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index)：
当前 185（5年平均142），显著升高（越高越集中）。有效股票数量（Effective N）仅54只（远低于500只充分分散水平）。这表明市场高度依赖少数AI巨头，系统性风险上升。119 2 资金流向 (Fund Flows & Breadth)： ◦ 2026年以来，Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 持续跑赢市值加权SPY（RSP YTD +5%+ vs SPY近0%），显示资金正从mega-cap AI/tech 轮动/部分去拥挤 至更广市场（非AI板块、传统行业）。73 ◦ 但AI主题仍主导收益：AI相关公司贡献了S&P 500大部分涨幅和盈利增长。 ◦ 信号：部分投资者已在“Great Unwinding”（去集中化），但尚未大规模撤离AI核心仓位。 3 其他关键指标： ◦ Magnificent 7（NVDA+MSFT+AAPL+AMZN+GOOGL+META+TSLA）：约30–34%。 ◦ Top 10整体：39.6%（历史高位）。 ◦ 收益/盈利集中度：AI股票贡献S&P 500大部分收益增长和资本开支（capex）。 ◦ 风险警示（多机构共识）：当前水平已达或超过历史泡沫峰值（Nifty 40%、Japan 44%、Dot-com 41%），任何AI capex放缓或盈利不及预期都可能引发剧烈回调。 总结建议：AI Big 10权重已处历史极端拥挤区（40–45%），HHI与资金轮动信号均指向高集中风险。历史经验显示，此类峰值后往往伴随板块轮动或调整（虽不一定立即崩盘）。

5/5 开盘 成m我做多了NVDA, GOOGL跟我之前猜想差不多，马上400了

Some quick thoughts on Intel's EMIB-T packaging for the new 2H27 Google TPU (Humufish). Based on my industry checks: 【How to read EMIB-T's 90% yield?】 1. Given Intel's track record running EMIB in mass production, hitting 90% technology validation yield on EMIB-T (still under development) is a very positive but reasonable data point. 2. Intel benchmarks EMIB production/assembly yield against FCBGA. Industry FCBGA yield today is generally above 98%. 3. On yield, getting from 90% to 98% is harder than getting from project kickoff to 90%. And technology validation yield ≠ final production yield, especially with some Humufish specs still unfinalized. So long-term, I'm positive on Intel's advanced packaging story. Near to mid-term, I'm staying cautious on how they get there. 【From 90% to 98%. Looks like just a few points. Does Google care? Absolutely】 1. Google recently asked TSMC how much it could save by placing wafer orders for Humufish's main compute die (designed in-house by Google) directly, rather than routing them through MediaTek. 2. Google and MediaTek have run a semi-COT model since day one (8t). MediaTek's mark-up sits mostly on the parts it designs itself, so whether Google places the wafer orders for main compute die directly isn't a key swing factor for MediaTek's earnings trajectory. 3. But Google even probing whether it can squeeze out the pass-through mark-up on wafer orders tells you something: Google has shifted from easygoing buyer to hard-nosed on cost. The reason is simple: to take on Nvidia head-on, cost is Google's edge, which makes EMIB-T production yield Google's problem to solve. For context, TSMC's yield target on 5.5-reticle CoWoS in 2026 also starts at 98%. 【TSMC's position】 1. My understanding is TSMC is still working out how much advanced-node capacity to allocate to Humufish in 2H27, for two reasons: (1) it still wants the back-end packaging orders, though looks unlikely for now, and that's by design on Google's part; and (2) it's still gauging actual back-end output from EMIB-T, to avoid misallocating scarce advanced-node capacity. 2. Humufish's effective back-end output hinges on both EMIB-T and substrates, and both need to be tracked together. 3. On the Humufish semi-COT model, TSMC also prefers MediaTek to place the wafer orders for the main compute die. Beyond the close working relationship, the key point is MediaTek is TSMC's third-largest advanced-node customer in 2025. If TPU orders shift, MediaTek's scale makes it a natural buffer for TSMC to rebalance its wafer allocation mix.

閒聊 Intel EMIB-T 封裝的 2H27 新款 Google TPU（Humufish）。以下根據我的產業調查： 【EMIB-T 90% 良率，該怎麼看？】 1. 基於 Intel 已經有穩定生產 EMIB 的經驗，開發中的 EMIB-T 技術驗證良率達到 90%，是很正向但也合理的訊號。 2. Intel 把 FCBGA 設定為 EMIB 生產（組裝）良率的比較標竿。目前業界 FCBGA 的生產良率約在 98% 以上。 3. 從良率角度，90%→98% 難度高於從開案 → 90%。此外，技術驗證良率與成品生產良率也是兩回事（特別是 Humufish 仍有規格未定案）。所以我雖正向看待 Intel 先進封裝長期發展，但中短期內仍會謹慎關注 Intel 如何面對這些挑戰。 【從 90% 到 98%，表面上才差個幾%，Google 會在意嗎？當然會】 1. Google 近期詢問過台積電，自行投片 Humufish 的 main compute die（由 Google 自行設計），與讓聯發科代為投片相較，成本可節省多少。 2. Google 與聯發科的合作一開始（8t）就是採 semi-COT 模式。聯發科的 mark-up 主要來自自行設計部分，所以 Google 是否親自投片 main compute die，不是聯發科獲利成長趨勢的觀察重點。 3. 但從 Google 連投片相關的 pass-through mark-up 都想看看能不能省，代表 Google 的成本控管態度，已從過去的好好先生，變成錙銖必較的精算者，原因在於要跟 Nvidia 直接競爭，所以具備成本優勢的 Google 當然會在意 EMIB-T 生產良率。順帶一提，台積電對 2026 年 5.5-reticle CoWoS 的生產良率目標，也是 98% 起跳。 【台積電的立場】 1. 我的理解是，台積電仍在評估 2H27 要分配多少先進製程產能給 Humufish，原因在於：(1) 仍想爭取後段封裝訂單（但目前看很難，這是 Google 有意為之的策略）、與 (2) 尚在評估後段 EMIB-T 實際產出，避免稀缺的先進製程資源被錯置。 2. 影響 Humufish 後段有效產出的關鍵，包括 EMIB-T 與載板，要追蹤這件事必須兩個一起看。 3. 在 Humufish semi-COT 方面，台積電也是傾向讓聯發科投片main compute die，除了兩家公司關係好外，關鍵是聯發科是台積電第三大先進製程客戶（2025年），若 TPU 訂單有變化，以聯發科的規模，較容易協助台積電做投片組合調整，扮演一個稱職的緩衝角色。

GOOGL超短线可以330止盈。相对于别的科技股，走的还是比较强势的👍 。如果大盘继续回踩，可以考虑再找机会买回。

短线上跟着信号加仓了SPXL 213.7 AMD 191 AVGO 316 GOOGL 317。