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$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$ $谷歌-A (GOOGL.US)$ $英特尔 (INTC.US)$ 今天的下跌是因为MSCI 改了自由流通量的取整规则: 旧规则:自由流通 ≥15% 的票,FIF 等于其估算自由流通量、向上取整到最近的 5%——对高流通超大盘是系统性高估。 NVDA 实际自由流通约 95–96%(黄仁勋+内部人持股拉低几个点),旧规则把它当 100% 算。新规则提高精度,把 FIF 从 ~1.00 砍回 ~0.95 → 指数权重直接掉 ~4–5%。NVDA 在 MSCI World 里占约 6.36%,乘以全球几万亿美元跟踪 AUM = 几十亿美元级别的强制卖盘。这就是那张 $20B 卖单的来源。 MSFT 自由流通本来就 ≈100%,自身 FIF 几乎不变;但市值加权指数权重要重新归一到 100%,NVDA(及其他被"向上取整"高估的超大盘)腾出的权重按市值分摊给其余成分股。MSFT 是第二大票,吃到的绝对美元增量最大 → 被动买盘 $15.4B。 NVDA:自由流通 ≈95-96%,旧规则取整到 100%(高估 4-5%)→ 日成交 2.82 亿 vs 前日均 1.66 亿(+96%)→ 跌 1.5%,成交额 600 亿 GOOGL:自由流通 ≈94-95%,旧规则取整到 100%(高估 5-6%)→ 日成交 4358 万 vs 前日均 2375 万(+79%)→ 跌 1.3% AMZN:自由流通 ≈91%,旧规则取整到 95%(高估 4%)→ 日成交 5447 万 vs 前日均 3946 万(+34%)→ 基本平盘微跌 META:自由流通 ≈87%,旧规则取整到 90%(高估 3%)→ 日成交 1963 万 vs 前日均 1677 万(+17%)→ 几乎没动 MSFT:自由流通 ≈99.8%,旧规则和新规则都 ≈100%(高估 0.2%)→ 日成交 7752 万 vs 前日均 3912 万(+64%)→ 涨 4.1% 梯度太漂亮了。谁被旧 FIF 高估得越多,谁今天被砸得越狠;MSFT 几乎没高估,成了被动资金外溢的最大接盘侠。
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$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$ $谷歌-A (GOOGL.US)$ $英特尔 (INTC.US)$ 今天的下跌是因为MSCI 改了自由流通量的取整规则: 旧规则:自由流通 ≥15% 的票,FIF 等于其估算自由流通量、向上取整到最近的 5%——对高流通超大盘是系统性高估。 NVDA 实际自由流通约 95–96%(黄仁勋+内部人持股拉低几个点),旧规则把它当 100% 算。新规则提高精度,把 FIF 从 ~1.00 砍回 ~0.95 → 指数权重直接掉 ~4–5%。NVDA 在 MSCI World 里占约 6.36%,乘以全球几万亿美元跟踪 AUM = 几十亿美元级别的强制卖盘。这就是那张 $20B 卖单的来源。 MSFT 自由流通本来就 ≈100%,自身 FIF 几乎不变;但市值加权指数权重要重新归一到 100%,NVDA(及其他被"向上取整"高估的超大盘)腾出的权重按市值分摊给其余成分股。MSFT 是第二大票,吃到的绝对美元增量最大 → 被动买盘 $15.4B。 NVDA:自由流通 ≈95-96%,旧规则取整到 100%(高估 4-5%)→ 日成交 2.82 亿 vs 前日均 1.66 亿(+96%)→ 跌 1.5%,成交额 600 亿 GOOGL:自由流通 ≈94-95%,旧规则取整到 100%(高估 5-6%)→ 日成交 4358 万 vs 前日均 2375 万(+79%)→ 跌 1.3% AMZN:自由流通 ≈91%,旧规则取整到 95%(高估 4%)→ 日成交 5447 万 vs 前日均 3946 万(+34%)→ 基本平盘微跌 META:自由流通 ≈87%,旧规则取整到 90%(高估 3%)→ 日成交 1963 万 vs 前日均 1677 万(+17%)→ 几乎没动 MSFT:自由流通 ≈99.8%,旧规则和新规则都 ≈100%(高估 0.2%)→ 日成交 7752 万 vs 前日均 3912 万(+64%)→ 涨 4.1% 梯度太漂亮了。谁被旧 FIF 高估得越多,谁今天被砸得越狠;MSFT 几乎没高估,成了被动资金外溢的最大接盘侠。
$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$ $谷歌-A (GOOGL.US)$ $英特尔 (INTC.US)$ 今天的下跌是因为MSCI 改了自由流通量的取整规则: 旧规则:自由流通 ≥15% 的票,FIF 等于其估算自由流通量、向上取整到最近的 5%——对高流通超大盘是系统性高估。 NVDA 实际自由流通约 95–96%(黄仁勋+内部人持股拉低几个点),旧规则把它当 100% 算。新规则提高精度,把 FIF 从 ~1.00 砍回 ~0.95 → 指数权重直接掉 ~4–5%。NVDA 在 MSCI World 里占约 6.36%,乘以全球几万亿美元跟踪 AUM = 几十亿美元级别的强制卖盘。这就是那张 $20B 卖单的来源。 MSFT 自由流通本来就 ≈100%,自身 FIF 几乎不变;但市值加权指数权重要重新归一到 100%,NVDA(及其他被"向上取整"高估的超大盘)腾出的权重按市值分摊给其余成分股。MSFT 是第二大票,吃到的绝对美元增量最大 → 被动买盘 $15.4B。 NVDA:自由流通 ≈95-96%,旧规则取整到 100%(高估 4-5%)→ 日成交 2.82 亿 vs 前日均 1.66 亿(+96%)→ 跌 1.5%,成交额 600 亿 GOOGL:自由流通 ≈94-95%,旧规则取整到 100%(高估 5-6%)→ 日成交 4358 万 vs 前日均 2375 万(+79%)→ 跌 1.3% AMZN:自由流通 ≈91%,旧规则取整到 95%(高估 4%)→ 日成交 5447 万 vs 前日均 3946 万(+34%)→ 基本平盘微跌 META:自由流通 ≈87%,旧规则取整到 90%(高估 3%)→ 日成交 1963 万 vs 前日均 1677 万(+17%)→ 几乎没动 MSFT:自由流通 ≈99.8%,旧规则和新规则都 ≈100%(高估 0.2%)→ 日成交 7752 万 vs 前日均 3912 万(+64%)→ 涨 4.1% 梯度太漂亮了。谁被旧 FIF 高估得越多,谁今天被砸得越狠;MSFT 几乎没高估,成了被动资金外溢的最大接盘侠。
BEZOS HAS 3 OPTIONS LEFT AFTER NEW GLENN'S LAUNCHPAD EXPLOSION. ALL 3 ARE CATASTROPHIC. This is the moment nobody wants to talk about. After years of development, a $1B+ heavy-lift rocket program, and a final ground test before Amazon's Kuiper satellite mission → Blue Origin is now boxed into THREE choices. And every single one is a nightmare: OPTION 1: REBUILD LC-36 FROM SCRATCH – The only launchpad Blue Origin owns is now a debris field – One 600-foot lightning tower toppled. Erector-gantry: gone. Ground equipment: destroyed. – Pad rebuilds after a full vehicle explosion take 12–24 months minimum – Amazon's Kuiper constellation — already years behind SpaceX Starlink — falls further behind – Every month of delay costs Amazon market share it cannot get back OPTION 2: BORROW OR BUY LAUNCH CAPACITY FROM A COMPETITOR – The only competitor with available heavy-lift pads is SpaceX – Asking your direct rival for a launchpad is not a business negotiation — it's a surrender – SpaceX has every incentive to slow-walk, overcharge, or simply say no – Amazon would be funding the company that is actively destroying Kuiper's market window – Jeff Bezos built Blue Origin specifically to avoid this dependency OPTION 3: ABSORB THE DELAY AND KEEP INVESTING – New Glenn's first stage was enveloped in fire during a routine hotfire test — the final check before orbital flight – The vehicle collapsed. The upper stage tilted and fell. Fires burned at multiple stories – This wasn't a launch failure. This was a ground test. The hardest problems haven't even been attempted yet. – Blue Origin has no second pad, no backup vehicle, and no timeline for the next attempt – And Starlink already has 7,000+ satellites in orbit Let that sink in. There is no Option 4. There is no clean exit. There is no "we rebuild and catch up by Q4." The media is showing you "rocket science is hard" and "no injuries reported." They're NOT showing you that Blue Origin just destroyed its only launchpad — the single piece of infrastructure that connects years of development to an actual orbital mission — three hours before midnight on May 28, 2026. This is the most consequential single test failure any American space company has faced since SpaceX's Pad 40 explosion in 2016. Follow now → this story is moving fast. RT so others see what's really at stake. Prepare accordingly. I'll keep you updated. Turn on notifications.
Premarket movers: Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower (Microsoft +0.8%, Nvidia +0.5%, Tesla -0.4%, Apple -0.5%, Meta -0.5%, Amazon -0.7%, Alphabet -0.8%) American Eagle shares (AEO) tumbled 11% after the clothing retailer reported total comparable sales for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate. Autodesk’s (ADSK) falls 7% after its proposed acquisition of MaintainX has been tentatively welcomed by analysts, who see the deal as expensive but representing a strong strategic move. Dell Technologies shares (DELL) surge 35% after the Texas-based company raised both its full year revenue and adjusted EPS outlooks on strong demand for its AI-powering servers. Elastic (ESTC) is down 5.4% after the software company gave an outlook for adjusted first-quarter earnings that was weaker than expected. Gap (GAP) shares fell 15% after the clothing retailer reported its latest earnings with poor performance by the company’s Old Navy brand that weighed on the full-year outlook in an otherwise mixed report. Krispy Kreme (DNUT) is up 5% after the doughnut chain’s Director Bernardo Hees acquired $768,718 of stock, according to a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. NetApp (NTAP) rallies 19% after the data storage provider reported its latest earnings with a strong print from the company, showing strong growth. Nextpower Inc. shares (NXT) rise 11% after it agreed to buy Prevalon Energy, a joint venture between Mitsubishi Power Americas and EES, for up to $365 million in cash and stock. PagerDuty shares (PD) are up 13% after the software company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast for adjusted earnings. SentinelOne shares (S) fall 12% after the software company gave a second-quarter revenue forecast that was weaker than expected and announced it would reduce its full-time employees by 8%. UiPath shares (PATH) are down 4.6% after the software company reported first-quarter results that analysts are generally positive on, although they want to see greater confirmation of durable growth in annualized recurring revenue. Viasat (VSAT) falls 7.2% after the wireless communications firm’s fourth-quarter earnings undershot analysts’ expectations.
What's missing from today's FT Amazon story can be found in the May 12 one. It wasn't the employees initiative: the company was "pressuring" workers to engage in "unnecessary AI activity." Workers had little interest in agentic AI Was it to pad Anthropic (AMZN investment) ARR?
美国证券交易委员会(SEC)已批准 Cboe 开展期权交易的盘后延长交易服务。 自7月13日起,特定股票的期权交易时间将延长,最早可于美国东部时间(ET)上午7:30开始,最晚持续至下午4:15。 涉及的股票包括:$NVDA、$GOOG、$AAPL、$MSFT、$AMZN、$TSLA、$META、$PLTR、$AVGO 和 $AMD。
美国证券交易委员会(SEC)已批准 Cboe 开展期权交易的盘后延长交易服务。 自7月13日起,特定股票的期权交易时间将延长,最早可于美国东部时间(ET)上午7:30开始,最晚持续至下午4:15。 涉及的股票包括:$NVDA、$GOOG、$AAPL、$MSFT、$AMZN、$TSLA、$META、$PLTR、$AVGO 和 $AMD。
THE OPTIONS MARKET IS ABOUT TO GO EXTENDED HOURS: THE MAG 7 ARE FIRST IN LINE CBOE just received SEC approval to launch extended trading hours for options. Launch date: July 13, 2026. Here's who makes the cut at launch: About 20 stocks, including all Magnificent 7 names: • Apple $AAPL • Microsoft $MSFT • NVIDIA $NVDA • Google $GOOGL • Amazon $AMZN • Meta $META • Tesla $TSLA To qualify for extended hours options trading: - $50B+ market cap - 150,000 contracts minimum - 10M+ shares in daily average trading volume CBOE Global Markets $CBOE also plans to launch 23x5 equities trading on its CBOE EDGX Exchange in December. Nearly around-the-clock trading, 5 days a week. Two separate launches. One direction: the market is open longer than ever.
Intel’s EMIB Packaging Is Growing Rapidly — Silicon Capacitors Are Taking Off Too Silicon capacitors are poised for explosive growth in the AI semiconductor space. Intel has been found to be planning a large-scale adoption of silicon capacitors starting next year, in order to enhance the performance of its in-house 2.5D packaging technology, “EMIB.” The most clearly visible source of demand is Google. Google plans to launch its next-generation AI accelerator, “v8e,” in the second half of next year, and has adopted an EMIB substrate with embedded silicon capacitors for that chip. With other Big Tech companies such as Amazon also currently applying EMIB, analysts say demand could increase sharply. According to industry sources on the 27th, Intel plans to apply silicon capacitors to its 2.5D packaging starting next year. Intel Adopts “Silicon Capacitors” for 2.5D Packaging… Google AI Chip Gets First Application 2.5D is an advanced packaging technology that inserts a thin-film interposer between the semiconductor and the substrate. Because it can connect circuits at higher density compared with conventional packaging that uses only a substrate, demand is rising in the AI and HPC fields. To improve cost efficiency in 2.5D packaging, Intel devised its own technology called EMIB. Rather than using a broad, spread-out interposer, EMIB connects chip to chip using a small silicon bridge. Since bridges only need to be placed where chip-to-chip connections are required, chips can be arranged more flexibly and efficiently. Recently, EMIB has been drawing attention as an alternative to TSMC, which had been leading the existing 2.5D packaging market. This is because TSMC’s 2.5D packaging capacity is suffering from a supply shortage amid the rapid development of the AI industry. Indeed, global Big Tech player Google is also paying attention to EMIB. Google has decided to adopt EMIB for its in-house AI semiconductor “v8e,” which it plans to launch in the second half of next year. Under this structure, TSMC handles chip mass production, MediaTek handles design and manufacturing support, and Intel handles packaging. However, there have been concerns that EMIB is gradually showing limitations in providing stable power supply for AI semiconductors, which consume large amounts of power. Accordingly, Intel plans to introduce new technologies such as silicon capacitors and through-silicon vias (TSV) to ensure stable packaging for the v8e. A capacitor is a component that stores and releases electricity in an electronic circuit. In the case of silicon capacitors, their resistance (ESL/ESR) is more than 100 times lower than that of conventional multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCC), minimizing the signal loss that occurs in high-performance semiconductors. They can also be designed in an ultra-thin structure based on a silicon wafer, enabling high-density integration. A semiconductor industry official explained, “Because the voltage drop (the phenomenon of voltage decreasing) that occurs in the high-frequency region within AI chips is difficult to solve with MLCC, we understand that Intel is adopting silicon capacitors as a solution,” adding, “The relevant supply chain is now in place, and mass production is set to begin in earnest next year.” EMIB-T Is Already on a Growth Trajectory — The Related Ecosystem and Market Are Expanding Together Intel has also inserted TSVs, which serve as power-delivery channels, into the silicon bridge. The key point is that by using TSVs to shorten the power-delivery path between the substrate and the chip, Intel has improved power efficiency and signal integrity. Intel calls this “EMIB-T.” The industry expects the EMIB-T and silicon capacitor markets to grow rapidly. This is because Japan’s Ibiden — one of the major companies that mass-produces semiconductor substrates for EMIB-T — is aggressively pursuing capital investment. Previously, Ibiden had planned to build its Kawashima (Gama) plant in Gifu Prefecture as a substrate plant for Intel CPUs. However, it postponed that schedule and decided in the first half of this year to officially convert the Gama plant into a mass-production line for EMIB-T substrates. The investment is 220 billion yen (about KRW 2.1 trillion). In its recent earnings announcement, Ibiden stated, “Operation of the Gama plant will begin in 2027 and enter full-scale mass production in 2028,” adding, “EMIB-T substrate capacity is currently far short of demand. However, adding further capacity is quite difficult, so we are discussing options with our customers.” A semiconductor industry official explained, “Ibiden’s EMIB-T-dedicated line is being built with most of the investment coming from customers such as Google, Amazon, and Intel,” adding, “This demonstrates that AI semiconductors based on EMIB-T will grow significantly going forward, and silicon capacitors are likely to expand alongside them.”
Cathie Wood and Ark Invest bought 24,186 shares of Amazon $AMZN today
美国股市投资分析评论和预测系列(之一千一百四十六) 和我群中一位群友的对话讨论 (Part II) 鲍博士 May27, 2026 ====================== 群友的质问 ——————- 1。 你这分析纯纯的马后炮 。 2。 站在2021视角 , 你知道2022会不行? 如果知道 , 应该是清仓股票. 你清仓了吗 ? 如果清仓了, 我佩服. 3。 事实肯定是现在股市泡沫比21年大的多 。 我没说卖股票 ,不过今年我肯定药清仓。 我的答复 ————— 不好意思, 您老又说错了。😰 请看我下面的分析。 1。 我可不是马后炮 ================== 不知道你在2020年和2021年是不是在我的投资群里?👀 我在2020年的五月份底开始看牛🐂, 我那时经常说的一句话,就是Fec和美国政府大规模放水/发钱,达到了水漫金山寺的壮观场面, 所以是炒股的大好时机! 👍 🙏 我不仅非常早的就预测牛市的到来, 而且在群里面一直带领大家按照强牛市的方法在2020年下半年和2021年整年奋力投资炒股。👍 当时群里的很多群友都赚了很多的钱, 包括我自己在内,总仓位大概涨了五倍左右。😇 🙌 2。 如果不是超级大熊市的话,我不主张空仓 ================================== 你可能也知道我一直提倡的《懒人投资三部曲》 。 A。除非是遇到特大的熊市 (下跌超过50%,如2000年和2008年), 我不建议大家将手上的仓位全部清掉。🤝 🙏 B。 总仓位至少要保持在50%到60%, 可以拿出40%至50%的仓位进行波段操作。 C。 我在很多散户群中经常看到和听到很多散户投资人,一有风吹草动或面临一定程度的回调,就动不动全部清仓或80%的清仓。👀 据我观察, 这些快进快出的散户们大概率都没能跑过标普大盘,甚至还是亏钱的! 👀 🤝 D。 因为我判断2022年虽然是一个熊市,但并不是大熊市,所以我从来没有清仓,一直保持在50%到60%的仓位。 虽然在2022年股市下跌了24%左右,我的仓位也确实下跌了不少。 🥵 但是在2022年10月中旬股市开始从熊市转成牛市的时候,我已经有很多优质的股票在市场中, 再加上我正确的判断出新的牛市的到来,所以大规模加仓, 这使我在2023年就将2022年的亏损全部赚回来。🙏 👍 3。2026年美股不是比2021年还大的泡沫 =============================== 现在2026 五月的大盘和龙头股的估值,其实还低于 2021 年泡沫高点。👍🤝 👌 2021年和2026年股市和经济的结构发生了巨大变化: 2021年底的背景: 处于美联储无限量化宽松(QE)的尾声,零利率带来的流动性泛滥,估值高, 很大程度上是由资本泡沫和市销率(P/S)虚高推上去的。 2026年现在的背景: 经历了美联储高利率(Higher-for-longer)的洗礼,现在的估值完全是由生成式AI带来的爆发式企业盈利(EPS)硬生生撑起来的。 QQQ , SMH ,和多数龙头股的估值都低于2021年, 但盈利增速远高于 2021。🙏 👍 标的 2021 FW P/E 2026现在 FW P/E ================================= S&P 500 21-23x 21x 略微偏低 IQQQ 30-32x 27x 依然偏低 MSFT 35x 25x. 依然偏低 GOOG. 24-27x 28x 基本相近 Meta 24x 18x 明显便宜 AAPL 28-30x 31-33x 略微偏高 AMZN. 55-65x 28x 大幅下降 NVIDIA 55-65x 21x 巨幅下降 Tesla 100-140x 200x 偏高 AMD 45-55x 38x 略微下降 SMH 32-35x 26x 明显下降 ~~~
Wall Street is ramping up hedges against Big Tech: The total net notional value of credit default swaps (CDS) outstanding on major tech firms is up +$1.0 billion so far in Q2 2026, to a record $12.5 billion. The total value of debt being insured against default on these companies is up +500% since Q2 2025. Oracle, $ORCL , leads with ~$6.5 billion, followed by Amazon, $AMZN , at ~$2.0 billion, and Alphabet, $GOOGL , at ~$2.0 billion. At the same time, Microsoft, $MSFT , stands at ~$1.0 billion, Meta, $META , at ~$800 million, and Nvidia, $NVDA , at ~$200 million. Furthermore, monthly notional trading volumes of Big Tech CDS trading at Bank of America are up +900% since the start of 2025. For context, most of these CDS contracts did not trade actively until 2025. Corporate borrowing tied to AI is exploding.
Wall Street is ramping up hedges against Big Tech: The total net notional value of credit default swaps (CDS) outstanding on major tech firms is up +$1.0 billion so far in Q2 2026, to a record $12.5 billion. The total value of debt being insured against default on these companies is up +500% since Q2 2025. Oracle, $ORCL , leads with ~$6.5 billion, followed by Amazon, $AMZN , at ~$2.0 billion, and Alphabet, $GOOGL , at ~$2.0 billion. At the same time, Microsoft, $MSFT , stands at ~$1.0 billion, Meta, $META , at ~$800 million, and Nvidia, $NVDA , at ~$200 million. Furthermore, monthly notional trading volumes of Big Tech CDS trading at Bank of America are up +900% since the start of 2025. For context, most of these CDS contracts did not trade actively until 2025. Corporate borrowing tied to AI is exploding.
- also:SNOW
SNOWFLAKE WILL PAY AMAZON ABOUT $6 BILLION OVER FIVE YEARS TO USE AWS GRAVITON CHIPS IN AMAZON DATA CENTERS, MAKING IT ONE OF AWS’S LARGEST CPU COMPUTING CUSTOMERS, ACCORDING TO THE WSJ.
THE DEAL HIGHLIGHTS GROWING DEMAND FOR CUSTOM AI AND CLOUD INFRASTRUCTURE CHIPS, WITH META AND APPLE ALSO AMONG MAJOR BUYERS OF AMAZON’S GRAVITON PROCESSORS.
- also:SNOW
Amazon $AMZN just announced a new deal with Snowflake $SNOW for its agentic computing chips Snowflake plans to pay Amazon $6 Billion oer the next 5 years
Semianalysis just put out this report: "Amazon’s AWS margins inflected this past quarter driven primarily by customer spending growth on Claude through Bedrock." $AMZN
Since reporting earnings, only $TSLA & $AAPL are outperforming $SPY . $GOOGL $MSFT $NVDA $META $AMZN $MAGS #MAG7
THERE ARE CURRENTLY 14 PUBLIC COMPANIES IN THE WORLD WORTH MORE THAN $1 TRILLION Nvidia $NVDA : $5.2T Google $GOOGL : $4.7T Apple $AAPL : $4.5T 4. Microsoft $MSFT : $3.1T 5. Amazon $AMZN : $2.9T 6. Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM : $2.1T 7. Broadcom $AVGO : $2T 8. Saudi Aramco: $1.8T 9. Tesla $TSLA : $1.6T 10. Meta Platforms $META : $1.6T 11. Samsung: $1.3T 12. Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B : $1T 13. Micron $MU : $1T 14. SK Hynix: $1T 10 are from the United States 2 are from South Korea 1 is from Saudi Arabia 1 is from Taiwan
TSMC plans to hike 3nm prices as much as 15% in the 2nd half 2026 due to surging demand for AI accelerators, media report, adding additional hikes of 5%-10% may follow in 2027. The report cites unnamed supply chain sources. $TSM $NVDA $AVGO $GOOGL $AMZN #semiconductors
ASIC chip revenue may double in 2027, then double again in 2028 for custom chip designers like Broadcom, MediaTek, Alchip, Global Unichip, media report, as demand from several major Cloud firms, including Google and Amazon, continues to rise and TSMC’s capacity shortage continues to ease. The Google TPU is expected to contribute a far higher amount to Broadcom and MediaTek in 2027-2028 vs now, with shipments of MediaTek’s 2nm TPU project in 2028 seen up nearly twofold – so long as it can get TSMC capacity/Intel EMIB. Alchip’s chairman described TSMC’s 3nm capacity shortage as worse than the memory shortage. After 2027, the capacity bottleneck is seen easing. $TSM $INTC $AVGO $GOOGL $AMZN #MediaTek #Alchip #GlobalUnichip #GUC #semiconductors
Elon Musk's Starlink and Amazon's $AMZN low-earth-orbit satellite business may be able to acquire some European mobile satellite spectrum next year - Reuters
AI server maker Wiwynn plans to build at least 3 more plants in the United States as customer demand at its new US facilities is “beyond anything we imagined”, media report, citing Chair Emily Hong. Wiwynn hopes to continue winning orders from US cloud giants for AI infrastructure projects. Hong reportedly said Wiwynn initially worried an expansion at its Texas facility might hurt demand from a Mexico plant, but instead clients asked for more capacity, and the Mexico plant remained fully utilized. The company’s capex this year is expected to be significantly higher than the NT$13 billion last year. $AMZN $GOOGL $AVGO $META $MSFT #semiconductors #AIserver
Component shortages have gotten so bad that upstream suppliers (GPU, CPU) now ensure AI server makers have every part needed before shipping product to them “to avoid wasting bullets”, media report, as bottlenecks now include CPUs, memory, storage, high-end PCBs, power management (PMIC) chips, passive components like MLCCs (Multi-Layer Ceramic Capacitors), more. The article cites Wiwynn Chair Emily Hong saying “Right now, the AI industry doesn’t just lack power, it lacks people, capital – and most of all, materials.” Wiwynn now holds historic high NT$230 billion inventory as it works to match components. $NVDA $INTC $AMD $AMZN $GOOGL #semiconductors #servers
This is how the largest public companies in world have performed so far in 2026 Nvidia $NVDA +15.5% Google $GOOGL +22.4% Apple $AAPL +13.6% Microsoft $MSFT -13.5% Amazon $AMZN +15.4% Broadcom $AVGO +19.7% Tesla $TSLA -5.3% Meta Platforms $META -7.6% Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B -3.2% Eli Lilly $LLY -0.9% Walmart $WMT +8% Micron $MU +163.1%
The data center CPU market is getting crowded, with large players looking to gain share: $AMD $NVDA $INTC $ARM $QCOM $AMZN $MSFT $GOOGL The most obvious ways to play the growth and increasing competition in this market: $TSM $SNPS $CDNS $ASML and $MRVL (ASIC partner)
- also:GOOGL
It seems so easy to just go buy the Amazon or Alphabet GPU version but they are hard to get credit against and do not hold their value over the years like Nvidia's do. Doesn't matter tomorrow or the next day, does matter over the long haul. And i like AMZN & GOOGL
风险提示,我的V36-9 Hedge Fund OS提示目前AI板块拥挤已达历次大股灾水平:当前AI Big 10具体权重数据(2026年5月最新): 根据SlickCharts实时S&P 500成分股权重数据(最新可用),AI Big 10(核心AI驱动公司:NVIDIA、Apple、Microsoft、Amazon、Alphabet、Broadcom、Tesla、Meta、AMD、Oracle)合计权重约为40%。 具体权重明细(Top 10中AI相关占比极高,仅第10名Walmart非核心AI): • NVDA (NVIDIA): 7.78% • AAPL (Apple): 6.41% • MSFT (Microsoft): 4.59% • AMZN (Amazon): 4.36% • Alphabet (GOOGL + GOOG): 7.19%(合计) • AVGO (Broadcom): 3.03% • TSLA (Tesla): 2.39% • META (Meta Platforms): 2.30% • AMD (Advanced Micro Devices): 1.10% • ORCL (Oracle): 0.84% 合计 ≈ 39.99% ≈ 40%。 更广义“AI-linked stocks”(Goldman Sachs定义,包括更多半导体/云/基础设施公司如MU、INTC等):已达~45%,创历史新高(自ChatGPT以来从~25%飙升)。124 Top 10整体权重(含WMT):39.60%(13家公司已超40%)。 历史对比图,使用专业金融图表风格重新绘制历史集中度峰值对比柱状图: • Nifty Fifty (1970s峰值):40% (1972) • Japan (1980s峰值):44% (1988) • Tech & Telecom (2000s峰值):41% (2000) • AI Big 10 (2020s当前):41% (2026,更新后仍处峰值区间;广义AI-linked更高) 图表解读:AI Big 10当前集中度已与2000年科技泡沫峰值持平(或略超历史警戒线40%),与Nifty Fifty和Japan泡沫时期接近。灰色虚线标注40%阈值,红色柱突出AI当前风险水平。 补充其他拥挤度指标(HHI指数、资金流向等) 1 HHI指数 (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index): 当前 185(5年平均142),显著升高(越高越集中)。有效股票数量(Effective N)仅54只(远低于500只充分分散水平)。这表明市场高度依赖少数AI巨头,系统性风险上升。119 2 资金流向 (Fund Flows & Breadth): ◦ 2026年以来,Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 持续跑赢市值加权SPY(RSP YTD +5%+ vs SPY近0%),显示资金正从mega-cap AI/tech 轮动/部分去拥挤 至更广市场(非AI板块、传统行业)。73 ◦ 但AI主题仍主导收益:AI相关公司贡献了S&P 500大部分涨幅和盈利增长。 ◦ 信号:部分投资者已在“Great Unwinding”(去集中化),但尚未大规模撤离AI核心仓位。 3 其他关键指标: ◦ Magnificent 7(NVDA+MSFT+AAPL+AMZN+GOOGL+META+TSLA):约30–34%。 ◦ Top 10整体:39.6%(历史高位)。 ◦ 收益/盈利集中度:AI股票贡献S&P 500大部分收益增长和资本开支(capex)。 ◦ 风险警示(多机构共识):当前水平已达或超过历史泡沫峰值(Nifty 40%、Japan 44%、Dot-com 41%),任何AI capex放缓或盈利不及预期都可能引发剧烈回调。 总结建议:AI Big 10权重已处历史极端拥挤区(40–45%),HHI与资金轮动信号均指向高集中风险。历史经验显示,此类峰值后往往伴随板块轮动或调整(虽不一定立即崩盘)。
JPMorgan has an updated list of top ideas from analysts as the new trading month kicks off. April was a strong month for Wall Street as all three of the major indexes ended higher. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also recorded their biggest monthly gains since 2020. Each month, analysts at JPMorgan compile their top plays tied to one of the following investment themes: growth, income, value and shorts. The bank added digital banking solutions company Q2 Holdings this month, while removing Alkami and Huntington Bancshares . Here’s 10 on the list: JPMORGAN’S IDEAS FOR MAY TICKER STOCK CAT Caterpillar CELH Celsius Holdings DLTR Dollar Tree VST Vistra NLY Annaly Capital ROIV Roivant ASH Ashland AMZN Amazon AVGO Broadcom QTWO Q2 Holdings ~~~
美国一季度实际GDP年化季环比初值2.0%,PCE物价指数4.3%。盘前公布的两项经济数据在预期内,使投资者主要聚焦在昨天盘后的几家大公司财报,和我在最新视频分析差不多,GOOG,AMZN表现靓丽,继续值得持有;而我最不看好的META,短期内先别触碰;MSFT交付了强劲的第三财政季度业绩,但股票反应较为平淡,说明大家仍然对其资本开支仍有忧虑,由于前期跌幅过大,目前估值我认为已经可以慢慢布局了。
我终于结束了南美秘鲁,巴西,阿根廷,和智利的长达一个月的旅游。在广大群友的多次要求之下, 我从上周一4/20开始,和上周三4/22,我已经在旅途中抽时间, 恢复了每周《金股美屋投资专题讨论会》星期一和星期三的定于美国加州时间下午6:00PM (美东时间9:00 PM)会议。 时间 ==== 4/29/2026 加州时间6:00PM , 东部时间9:00PM 讨论话题 ====== 1。 龙头股今天季报的解读和讨论 GOOG, AMZN, MSFT, META, QCOM, etc. AAPL , AMD, 等季报的预期。 2。 Fed 今天会议和鲍威尔记者招待会的解读 A。鲍维尔决定留任 B。 多位联储会官员投反对票 C。 Kevin Warsh 上台后的策略 3。 美国伊朗战势如何收场? A。继续封锁? B。 加码轰炸? C。 彻底TACO? 4。 股市下面在短期和中期的走势会如何进行?下面是否还有机会?应该如何操作? 正如我预测的,股市进行了出乎大多数投资人预料的大反转。🙏 👍 虽然我在群中一直强调应该及时和勇于抄底,但大多数投资人都可能在这次出人意料的大反转中踏空了。 🥵 下面短期中期和投资策略,领域,和标的。 ——————————— A。 还没有上涨太多的领域: 软件股 龙头股 比特币和加密货币, 银行和金融股, 经济复苏股, 世界股,尤其是韩国,日本, 以及资源类型的国家的股市, 等 B。依然的强势股: 存储股, 光电股, Semi Equipment , AI 芯片股, 小盘股, 等 5。 个别领域和各股的分析和讨论 ~~~
美国股市投资分析评论和预测系列(之一千一百一十九) 影响美国股市走势的重要因素 Dividend Growth Investment Strategy 每周《金股美屋》 股市专题讨论纪要和回放链接 鲍博士 April 27 ,2026 ================= 我终于结束了南美秘鲁,巴西,阿根廷,和智利的长达一个月的旅游。在广大群友的多次要求之下, 我从上周一4/20开始,和上周三4/22,我已经在旅途中抽时间, 恢复了每周《金股美屋投资专题讨论会》星期一和星期三的定于美国加州时间下午6:00PM (美东时间9:00 PM)会议。 时间 ==== 4/28/2026 加州时间6:00PM , 东部时间9:00PM 下面是CH会议中讨论过的主要话题 影响下面股市走势的主要因素 ===================== 1。 龙头股的季报 GOOG, AMZN, MSFT, META, AAPL, AMD, QCOM, etc. A。 关注的要点是MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, META,等Hyperscalers 对下面一年CapEX 是否有所增加?还是保持不变? 或者是减少? 最好的情况应该是保持不变或稍微有所增加, 但现在投资人不喜欢公司太大规模的增加CapEx.🤝 B。 关注的另外一个要点是MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, META,等Hyperscalers 在销售上,尤其是在说AI Cloud算力的销售上是否有大幅度的增加? 这是非常关键的一点,现在的投资人非常希望看到这些大的龙头公司投资了很多手机中心基建费用之后, 应该逐渐开始看到回报! 👀 👍 季报结果的影响 ————————- A。 如果投资人看到这些公司销售大规模增加,而进一步投资的CapEx费用并没有增加太多的话, 这就会使股市继续向上攀升。👍 B。 反之, 如果投资人看到这些公司销售没有大规模增加,而进一步投资的CapEx费用却增加太多的话, 这就会使股市开始下跌。🥵 2。 美国伊朗战势如何收场? A。 进一步延长对Hormuz 海峡伊朗运输的封锁 B。对伊朗的军事目标,甚至基础设施, 进行进一步的打击。 3。 Fed 会议, 鲍维尔是否离任? Kevin Warsh 上台后的策略? 如果在星期三的Fed会议中,鲍维尔宣布/暗示会离开联储会, 这对市场是一个利好的消息。👍 下面投资的策略 ============ 正如我预测的,股市进行了出乎大多数投资人预料的大反转。🙏 👍 虽然我在群中一直强调应该及时和勇于抄底,但大多数投资人都可能在这次出人意料的大反转中踏空了。 🥵 现在的关键问题是: 1。 股市下面在短期和中期的走势会如何进行? 我个人认为股市在短期可能会有小规模的回调, 然后在五月份到夏天继续上涨, 很有可能会达到7300 , 7400,甚至7500 。 2。 下面是否还有机会?应该如何操作? A。 下面的策略是关注10天和20天的DMA均线的支持 B。 如果大盘和个股补跌破10天和20天的DMA均线支持的话,说明股市依然是强势,可以放低买入。 3。 下面短期中期和投资策略,领域,和标的。DMA A。 还没有上涨太多的领域: 软件股 龙头股 比特币和加密货币, 银行和金融股, 经济复苏股, 世界股,尤其是韩国,日本, 以及资源类型的国家的股市, 等 B。依然的强势股: 存储股, 光电股, Semi Equipment , AI 芯片股, 小盘股, 等 Dividend Growth Investment Strategy =========================== 1。 目标是在退休之后有长期和稳定Dividend 的收入 2。 不是投资高股息的股票,而是投资高股息增长的股票。 3。 一个公司能够持续地将股息增长的话,就说明这个公司非常的赚钱,发展得好。 4。 实践证明这种方法能够跑赢大盘,但更重要的是能够在退休的时候产生大量的股息,为退休的日程生活提供费用,不需要卖股票。 ~~~
盘前31.31买了点AMZN的干儿子,核能IPO股XE
- also:NVDA
$AMZN + Cerebras are working on a similar disaggregated inference solution as $NVDA + Groq Prefill => runs on Trainium 3 Decode => runs on Cerebras
SPX 7120 止盈了1/4仓位,盈利超20-50%不等 $AMKR $AMD $INTC $EWY $AMZN 等 https://x.com/lordwilliamuk/status/2046606323484156258?s=46
$AMZN 持仓盈利超20%,又是最低点的买入! 2个月的持仓,等来了爆发; Anthropic晋升AI王者,让AWS业务和Trainium4芯片有了推背感; 到达了第一止盈位,止盈了部分。 https://x.com/lordwilliamuk/status/2042604721882509364?s=46
$AMZN AWS yoy growth continues to accelerate - Deutsche expert call
最新量化【UBER×Rivian挑战TSLA Robotaxi。AAPL/AMZN/META/MSFT点位更新。】已经发布,https://youtu.be/GdiQStO4i6E
根据SEC 13F证券报告,分析了下美股各顶级投资机构在 Q4做了哪些重大加减仓, 总结: 1.大多数顶级投资机构继续押注AI; 2.我们建仓的 $NVDA $MSFT $AMZN 比机构平均成本更低; 3.盘前641,买了点 $META https://x.com/lordwilliamuk/status/2024085358518923594?s=46
- also:NVDA
包括下图指标在内的3个指标显示,现在是可以分批买入美股的时刻; 182.5-170分批买入 $NVDA 197-185分批买入 $AMZN https://x.com/lordwilliamuk/status/2022332086963576929?s=46
机器人收益总结 ProfitWatch提供个股解读/投资教育/决策助手等服务。2024至今跑赢大盘177%。https://www.profitwatch.ai/?kol=nafef, 7天免费体验,点击网页上的Discord图标后自动加入Discord VIP频道。 个股解读本周分享TSLA PLTR。VIP可阅读完整内容。 市场分析摘要 大盘上周继续跌宕起伏。周四一天跌进ICU,周五又开始狂欢。下周的反弹我认为是一个减少杠杆的不错的机会。整体操作是高抛低吸的波段为主,减少高beta的股票,小量增加低估的科技股长持仓位。MSFT/AMZN有小量加仓。 板块轮动十分明显,能源、工业、消费版块带领着大盘跑。科技股、软件股领跌。几个走得强势的个股有XOM/GEV/CMG/WM等。这些可以继续持有。科技股整体依然走得弱势。需要等待机器人触发大盘的底部信号再大力加仓。耐心等待。 币圈砸到200周均线,长线有机会上车。币股HOOD终于是迎来了一个可以二次加仓的位置。上周加了小仓。下面几周我会重点关注,准备加回顶部144/116卖出的仓位。具体操作在VIP中分享。 ProfitWatch VIP群上周主要交易: SPXL +21.67% PEP +16.93% GLD +16.93% NOC +16.13% INTC +12.85% 版块轮动和每日数据(免费): https://www.profitwatch.ai/decision-system?kol=nafef
中东局势升温,美股、黄金、比特币跳水 $BTC 现价84.6K-80K,会再买点; 之前止盈的 $AMZN $GOOG $TSLA 会分批买回。 $MSFT 现价420-380 会分批买入长线仓位 https://x.com/lordwilliamuk/status/2016911200076870092?s=46
Trump半松口,盘前又加了部分仓位; $AMZN $TSLA $GOOG $BTC https://x.com/lordwilliamuk/status/2013979111811694877?s=46
昨天提到的 $SPX 6800,现在精准到达,开始分批买入 $AMZN 229.8 $TSLA 421.4 $GOOG 323.6 $BTC 89500 上周五6940以上让大家止盈了,今天哀鸿遍野,捡筹码的时刻。 $SPX 6800-6600时不错的区间 https://x.com/lordwilliamuk/status/2013704134860452265?s=46
- also:GOOG
标普指数再破新高,2周多前,我们6750精准抄底; $GOOG 盈利已经超9%; 计划等谷歌市值全球第一时,再止盈; $AMZN 我们在225以下,几次买入了,盈利已超10%; 止盈了点;计划在258左右再止盈点 https://x.com/lordwilliamuk/status/2009751459546435586?s=46
$SPX 6750 左右,盘前加仓了美股; 圣诞行情快到了 $GOOG $NVDA $AVGO $AMZN https://x.com/lordwilliamuk/status/2001649586771763362?s=46
新款芯片如期推出,$AMZN 盈利超3.5%,止盈了部分,上推止损到成本 https://x.com/lordwilliamuk/status/1995889463889719584?s=46
230-220加仓点 $AMZN ,期待下周亚马逊Trainium3芯片带来惊喜 https://x.com/lordwilliamuk/status/1994376269148926368?s=46
- also:MSFT
224买入了 $AMZN, 488买入了 $MSFT 4个监控信号显示,本周是抄底美股的时机 https://x.com/lordwilliamuk/status/1990821645217649122?s=46
AMZN/APPL财报不错,$AMZN大涨12% 我们191,209买入的 $AMZN, 终于修成正果! 昨天高位减仓了美股,今天跌了不少,明天看反弹,买了一些仓位回来; $VST $CEG $HOOD $SOFI 111-115K减仓的 $BTC ,现价107K买了一点回来,看能否跟随美股反弹一波。 https://x.com/lordwilliamuk/status/1984001300510523639?s=46
目前大盘冲上 200天线。但由于关税的确比 4/2之前高。所以大盘短期要创新高不会出现。市场在这一波段反弹应该有一段时间的横盘要作市场基本面的吸收一段时间。应该不错了。回调也是合理的。 包括 TSLA. AMZN 都是反弹到了短波段的阻线。 Nvda 125 还是阻力未破。AMD 112 阻力。 短期想追高,不是理想。但回调的低点应该不会在 4月份底下。 目前对医药价格方面也是一个未来的未知中数,它们也是会影响大盘。因为川普未来要对进口医药产品的关税。
- also:GOOG
下周我手中有 meta sp 550/660sc. GOOG sp 155/177.5…AMZN sp 180/210sc 还有在抱着。。。希望成功
全部都是在昨天下午开的单: 目前我手中还有没有关闭了的,AAPL sp 205...GOOG sp 155, AMZN sp 180, Meta sp 540希望成功
Related Predictions · 1 polymarket
- 0%Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?otherends 2026-06-29· 关于亚马逊市值排名的预测,直接影响亚马逊股价。
Research · 4
Headlines · 15 from seekingalpha_rss
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- seekingalpha_rssauthor:SA News15hAI monetization shifts to usage-based pricing
- seekingalpha_rssauthor:Peter Richman15hAmazon Gets Paid Every Time Anthropic Grows
- seekingalpha_rssauthor:Peter Richman15hAmazon Gets Paid Every Time Anthropic Grows
- seekingalpha_rssauthor:Future Stack Investment16hNvidia And The Reality Of Paying For Perfection
- seekingalpha_rssauthor:Future Stack Investment16hNvidia And The Reality Of Paying For Perfection
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- seekingalpha_rssauthor:Louis Gerard19hSnowflake Just Signed A 5-Year Check To Its Biggest Competitor
- seekingalpha_rssauthor:Louis Gerard19hSnowflake Just Signed A 5-Year Check To Its Biggest Competitor
- seekingalpha_rss21hAST SpaceMobile sinks 18%, leading space stocks lower after Blue Origin rocket explosion
- seekingalpha_rss22hSnowflake upgraded at HSBC after massive earnings-led rally
- seekingalpha_rssauthor:Treading Softly23hMicrosoft: Stellar Fundamentals Tied To Discounted Valuation
- seekingalpha_rssauthor:Treading Softly23hMicrosoft: Stellar Fundamentals Tied To Discounted Valuation
- seekingalpha_rss1dTesla Robotaxi fleet in Texas is less than one-tenth of Waymo's